Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. USDA report day, month and quarter end and more recession talk. SU is down 6 cents and near 14.87. SN is near 16.71. SX is near14.71. SMU is near 411.1. BOU is near 67.90. CU is down 5 cents and near 6.57. CN is near 7.63. CZ is near 6.46. WU is up 3 cents and near 9.27. KWU is up 1 cent and near 9.92. MWU is down 6 cents and near 10.22.
US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold, silver, copper, cocoa and cotton are lower. Coffee and sugar are higher. Q1 US consumer spending was revised down to up 1.8 pct vs previous est of up 3.1 pct. Economist have raised their est of a US recession to 44 pct.
Over the next few weeks US north plains could see rain but Midwest will be mostly dry. Next week temps turn warmer. EU forecast is dry. Russia and Ukraine are dry. India monsoon improving.
US domestic cash soybean basis levels remain firm. Higher soymeal basis is helping SMN and board crush margins. Soyoil crush share down to 44 pct. Dalian soybean, palmoil and soyoil futures were lower. Soymeal was higher. Trade still hoping for increase China buying US soybeans. US trade range for June 1 stocks wide at 360 mil bu vs USDA carryout est of 280. Trade range for US 2022 soybean acres is 3.6 mil acres. Average guess 90.4 vs USDA March est of 90.9 and 87.2 ly. Weekly US soybean export sales est at -100-300 old crop and 100-500 new.
US domestic cash corn basis levels remain firm. Dalian corn futures were lower. Trade still hoping for increase World buyers buying US corn. US trade range for June 1 stocks at 379 mil bu. Trade range for US 2022 corn acres at 2.6 mil acres. Average guess 89.8 vs USDA March est of 89.5 and 93.3 ly. Argentina seeing slowdown in truck movement. Farm group threatening strike due to drop in diesel and fertilizer supplies and higher diesel prices. Weekly US corn export sales est at 200-700 old crop and 100-500 new.
World wheat demand increasing. GASC bought 825 mt of World whea; 340 French, 240 Romania, 175 Russia and 50 Bulgaria. Average guess for US 2022 wheat acres is 47.0 vs USDA March est of 47.3 and 46.7 ly. US SRW export prices competitive for Aug-Sep. Not Oct due to carry. Last year, US and EU futures bottomed ly first week in July. Weekly US wheat export sales est at 200-600 mt.
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