Written Commentary
Source: Future Source
Both European and US markets have cooled in the overnight trading, Chicago futures retreating more than 2% after six straight sessions of gains and a two month high earlier in the week. Rising supplies from on-going harvest adding pressure. Crop concerns remain, traders and importers have adopted a ‘just in time’ approach on the back of high prices and declining confidence from the recent resurgence in Covid.
Weather remains the primary concern in North America and the Black Sea region. Canadian crops are in a similarly tough shape, Canada’s prairies have been in drought ever since growing season began with forecast suggesting this trend will continue to the end of the month with spring wheat in Saskatchewan rated 25% good or excellent, down from 77% a month earlier and just 18% rapeseed rated good/excellent, down from 64%. Export trade will be significantly impacted with top customer China may need to seek supplies elsewhere, potentially Australia.
Corn down due to weak export sales and some rain forecast for the US Midwest weighing on prices. Germany’s barley crop is still expected to be larger than last year’s despite the heavy rain with 2021 harvest scheduled to rise to 9.3mt from 8.7mt. Strategie Grains cuts France’s soft wheat harvest to 37 – 37.5mt, down from 38mt forecast last week due to lower yields in Northeast. USDA Madrid has revised European grain production, increases outlook by 5% to 293.3mt from 279mt.
Contact the ADMISI Grains and Oilseeds Derivatives Brokerage team
Hanne Bell & Ryan Easterbrook
Phone: +44 (0)20 7716 8477 or +44 (0)20 7716 8140 Email: intl.grains@admisi.com
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© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
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