Written Commentary
London Wheat Report
Source: FutureSource
A mixed day on the US markets as soybeans found support while grains continued to cool ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report. Trade subdued ahead of tomorrow’s report although there shouldn’t be many secrets on tomorrow’s report. Corn exports should go up, ending stocks tighten to the point that US summer weather is going to keep these markets volatile. May will be the first stab at new crop ending stocks. Soybeans found support on the back of the trade feeling that CONAB are still 1-2Mmt too high in their Brazilian soybean estimate. CONAB’s latest estimate has reduced the 21/22 Brazilian soybean crop to 122.431Mmt vs 125.471Mmt in the previous forecast. Chicago May-22 soybeans were trading up 25 cents at time of writing.
Reports are indicating that China’s corn imports will be down 2Mmt due to Black Sea issues. Market rumours suggest that they have up to 6Mmt worth of ownership trapped in Ukraine currently, with little hope of being let out in current circumstances. Chatter continues to dominate about the floating mines and Turkish and Romanian diving teams have reportedly defused some stray mines around their water
There are also a reported 1,100 train wagons carrying grain stuck at the Polish border, say each rail wagon can carry circa 50t, that’s around 55kt stuck awaiting documents/changing gauges etc. Supermax vessels carry circa 55kt – 60kt which put it into perspective the issues they face without deep water port access. Ukraine’s 2022-23 spring planted areas are to fall by 21%. Vlad keeps chatting about threatening to restrict grains exports to unfriendly nations which would ergo include the blockade of Ukrainian ports. Russian army are gearing up for a major offensive in the Donbass so we can anticipate they are going to flatten everything in their path now that they do not control in Donetsk and Lukhansk, followed by securing the land corridor from Russia to Crimea. Mariupol will not look like a city once the howitzers are finished.
Matif May-22 settled down 25c at €363.75/t and Sep-22 settled up €3.00 at €346.25/t. Brent crude fell under the $100/ba mark, hitting a trading low of $98.41/ba before trading at $99.88 at time of writing. Matif rapeseed May-22 settled up €6.50 on yesterday at €961/t. |
Contact the ADMISI Grains and Oilseeds Derivatives Brokerage team
Hanne Bell, Ryan Easterbrook, Dominic Enston and Aaron Stockley-Isted
Phone: +44 (0)20 7716 8477 or +44 (0)20 7716 8140 Email: intl.grains@admisi.com
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice. ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG. A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2022 ADM Investor Services International Limited
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
