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ADMISI London Wheat Report for 9 February

London Wheat Report

Source: FutureSource 

WASDE day today. Outlook for US wheat is for stable supplies and lower domestic use alongside reduced exports and higher ending stocks. Pretty bearish towards US wheat overall with US ending stocks increased on the Jan report. Projected US 21/22 ending stocks are raised 20m bushels to 648m bushels but still 23% lower than last year. Global wheat outlook is for lower supplies and high consumption with supplies falling by 1.1Mmt to 1,066.3Mmt as reduced production more than offsets higher beginning stocks. Production decreases are seen in both Iraq and Syria. World consumption increased by 0.6Mmt on higher feed and residual use from Canada and China. Projected global trade is raised 2.3Mmt to 206.7Mmt, primarily on higher exports by India and Argentina. Projected 21/22 world ending stocks are lowered by 1.7Mmt to 278.2Mmt with reductions for Canada and India offset by increases by the USA and Ukraine. Chicago wheat Mar-22 was trading down 4 cents at time of writing. Matif Mar-22 settled down €1.75 on yesterday to €262.75/t while May-22 settled unchanged. London May-22 settled marginally up.

Global corn production has been reduced, although less than trade expectations. Lower corn production visible for Brazil and Paraguay that are partially offset by increase in the Philippines. Exports have been reduced for Paraguay and Argentina’s and Brazil’s exports for the marketing year. Corn imports have been raised for Iran and Canada. Rumours circulating the market that Cofco may have bought 2Mmt of US corn. Chicago Mar-22 corn was trading up.

US bean ending stocks were higher than trade average as were world ending stocks. US season average soybean price for 2021/22 is forecast at $13.00/bu, up 40 cents from last month partly reflecting the impact of drought in South America. Global soybean production is reduced 8.7Mmt to 363.9Mmt on drought in South America. Brazil’s soybean crop is lowered 5Mmt to 134Mmt Paraguay is lowered 2.2 million to 6.3 million, and Argentina is reduced 1.5 million to 45 million. Another notable oilseed change includes a 1.3-million-ton increase to 10.8 million for Indian rapeseed production on a faster-than-expected planting pace and higher yields. China booked another 240kt of beans in daily reporting. Matif May-22 rapeseed settled up €5.75 on yesterday at €682.75/t.

Contact the ADMISI Grains and Oilseeds Derivatives Brokerage team

Hanne Bell, Ryan Easterbrook, Dominic Enston and Aaron Stockley-Isted

Phone: +44 (0)20 7716 8477  or  +44 (0)20 7716 8140      Email: intl.grains@admisi.com

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© 2022 ADM Investor Services International Limited

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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