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Ag Market Recap for Apr 15

by Steve Freed,

Soymeal traded higher. There is talk of US feeders buying soymeal to replace DDG. Record March US NOPA crush helped soybeans. Drop in US ethanol production weighed on corn. Talk of better Russia weather offered resistance to wheat. Concern about Global economy weighed on equities.

SOYBEANS

Soybeans found support from a record US March NOPA soybean crush. Talk of record March Brazil soybean exports and better China port soybean supplies offered resistance. European weather model call for drier and warmer US Midwest weather next week. America model is wetter. This month, USDA raised US soybean crush but raised the carryout due to lower exports. Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated near 300-600 mt versus 523 last week. New crop sales are estimated near 75-300 mt versus 353 last week. Trade still looking for lower prices assuming slow global energy demand, protein demand and higher crops.

CORN

Corn futures traded lower. Large drop in weekly US ethanol production and increase in stocks weighed on prices. The European weather model suggest warmer and drier US Midwest weather next week. This could help US corn planting pace. America model still has rains for parts of the south and east Midwest. Some still feel corn prices will trend lower if US crop is planted on time. Weekly US ethanol production was down 15 pct from last week and 44 pct from last year. Stocks were up 1 pct from last week but up 21 pct from last year. Margins remain negative. Trade estimates US weekly corn export sales near 600-1,200 mt versus 1,848 last week. New crop sales could be near 150-350 mt versus 608 last week. In April, USDA lowered US ethanol use but raised feed use. Some feel drop in US meat demand could drop final feed number and final ethanol use could be even lower. This could add to final carryout.

WHEAT

Wheat futures traded lower. Talk of increase chance for rains in parts of the Black Sea offered resistance. A normal Russia crop could add to already record World wheat stocks. Parts of east Europe remains dry. This week, USDA left US winter wheat crop ratings unchanged and near 62 pct good/ex. This above last year. Crops remain favorable in HRW and PNW wheat. There is some dryness across parts of HRW areas. SRW conditions drooped due to too much rain. In April, USDA dropped slightly US wheat export and feed use. USDA dropped World feed us and increased World carryout to a new record. Weekly US wheat export sales are estimated near 150-350 mmt versus 258 last week. New crop is 100-300 mt versus 117 last week. Wheat future near 50 day moving average. Trade below could trigger fund long liquidation.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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