Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans ended lower. China syndrome weighed on soybeans, copper and Crude. There was talk that Managed funds reduced Their soybean long on concern over China demand and risk of wild trade volume that could trend lower after the 3 day holiday weekend. There may also be concern late planted US 2022 corn crop could add to final US soybean acres. Weekly US soybean exports were near 28.1 mil bu vs 12.3 ly. Season to date exports are near 1,651 vs 2,020 last year (-369). USDA goal is 2,115 vs 2,261 ly (-146). Some feel final US soybean exports could be near 2,200 and carryout near 205 vs USDA 260. SK traded over Fridays high near 16.89 but failed to trade over 17.00. SK settled back near the 20 DMA nar 16.58.
CORN
Corn futures ended mixed. CK ended lower and near 7.66. CK traded over 7.73 on talk of higher demand for US corn. USDA announced 1,020 mt of corn sold to China, 680 mt 2021/22 and 340 mt 2022/23. Weekly US corn exports were near 55.8 mil bu vs 68.0 ly. Season to date exports are near 1,259 vs 1,491 last year (-232). USDA goal is 2,500 vs 2,753 ly (-253). Ukraine war continues. There is concern that Ukraine may not export additional corn. Some estimate US corn exports closer to 2,750 and 2021 carryout near 1,150 vs USDA 1,440. CK dropped lower on talk Managed funds may be reducing longs before the long 3 day holiday weekend. There remains few resting orders above or below the market which adds to market volatility. Trade estimates that US corn planting pace is near 4 percent vs 2 last week. US 2 week weather forecast is warm and dry west but cool and wet east. This could slow US 2022 east Midwest corn planting. US soil temps remain colder than 52 degrees needed for planting. Brazil corn exports basis dropped 25-30 cents. Summer corn harvest is near 62 pct. 2nd crop is pollinating Argentina corn export basis dropped 30 cents. Trucker union began nationwide strike today.
WHEAT
Wheat futures rallied on a dry US 2 week south plains weather forecast. WK ended near 10.79 after testing 10.91. KWK ended near 11.38 after testing 11.57. MWK ended near 11.46 after testing 11.60. KWK tested March 22 high near 11.56. Next resistance is near 11.64. Weekly US wheat exports were near 15.1 mil bu vs 16.9 ly. Season to date exports are near 647 vs 788 last year (-141). USDA goal is 785 vs 992 ly (-207). Some feel final US wheat exports could be near 830 and carryout near 590 vs USDA 678. Two week US south plains weather forecast is warm and dry. Some estimate US 2022 wheat crop could be near 1,810 mil bu vs USDA Outlook estimate of 1,910 and US 2022/23 carryout of 425 vs USDA 731.
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