Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans ended higher. SN ended near 16.65. SN held support near 20 DMA near 16.42. Soyoil rallied late on talk of delivery receipts being cancelled and firming domestic basis. Funds were net buyers of 6,000 soybeans, 12,000 soyoil and sold 4,000 soymeal. There were no new US soybean export sales announced. China hog producers meal buying has slowed due to covid lockdown. Lack of Black Sea vegoil exports has pushed sunoil prices higher. Ukraine senior Ag official said sunoil exports could drop to 3.4 mmt vs 5.3 last year. India is imported more palmoil. All this has pushed soyoil as pct of board crush to back to 45 pct. US March NOPA soybean crush is est near 182.0 mil bu vs 178.0 ly. This would be largest March crush on record. End of March soyoil stocks are est at 2,072 mil lbs vs 1,771 last year.
CORN
Corn futures ended higher. Managed funds were net buyers of 8,000 corn contracts. Managed funds are estimated to be net long 386,000 corn contracts. Index funds are long 493,000. Combined, funds are 55 pct of total open interest. Most of the corn news remains positive. US east Midwest rains may be slowing early corn plantings. This could shift more corn acres to soybeans. Ukraine senior Ag official said corn exports could drop to 17 mmt vs 23.1 last year. Some feel USDA is too low is US 2021/22 corn exports and too high in carryout. Demand for US corn exports could extend into 2023 until 2023 SA harvest. This and a lower US 2022 corn crop could suggest higher CZ prices. CN made new highs at 7.79. CZ made new highs at 7.37. Weekly US ethanol production was down .8 pct from last week and up 5.7 pct from last year. Stocks were down 4 pct from last week but still up 21 pct from last year. Some feel stocks could begin to drop on increase export demand.US crushers are bidding up for corn. US farmers have sold more new crop corn to date than normal and at lower prices. Most are willing now to wait for spring planting weather. Trade estimates US old crop corn export sales near 850-1,700 mt vs 782 last week and new crop near 300-800 mt vs 145 last week.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended higher. WN ended near 11.21 with a range of 10.86-11.31. Resistance is 11.39. KWN ended near 11.79 with a range of 11.44 to 11.84. Next resistance is 12.00. MWN ended near 11.59 with a range of 11.44 to 11.69. Contract highs is 11.80. Egypt bought 350 mt EU wheat. FranceAgriMer lowered 2021/22 soft wheat exports to 9.5 mmt vs 9.7 previous. Drop due to less demand as some Russia exports continue. New Russia sanctions if war worsens could also limit their 2022/23 wheat exports especially considering their domestic wheat and flour prices are record high. Wheat futures are supported by talk of flour users adding to Q3 coverage. Fear is that US HRW crop could be smaller and limit the downside in prices. US HRW basis is firming due to ongoing logistics challenges especially RR. ND/MN blizzards moisture welcomed but also added to logistic challenges.
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