Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans ended higher. As Ukraine war continues, this could be pushing soyoil higher if Black Sea exports are reduced and Ukraine 2022 crop acres are also reduced. July soybeans have rallied to near 17.00 on lack of increase in open interest. SN is not overbought but close over 16.75 would suggest a test of 18.06. Weekly US soybean exports were 35 mil bu vs 8 ly. Season to date exports are 1,689 vs 2,028 ly. Some are using US 2021/22 soybean carryout near 180 mil bu versus USDA 260. This includes crush near 2,220 mil bu vs USDA 2,215 and exports near 2,190 versus USDA 2,115. Some are concerned that China covid lockdowns could slow their economy and commodity imports. Trade estimates US soybean planting near 2 pct done.
CORN
July and December corn made new highs. Ukraine war could reduce Ukraine corn exports. Lower South America corn exports could also increase demand for US corn. Some are also concerned about the slow start to US corn planting. Higher demand for US corn and slow start to US 2022 planting season could support CN on a 20-40 cent break. Trade estimates US corn planting at 5 pct versus 2 last week. Some feel US Midwest 30 day forecast could suggest farmers could get their intended corn acres planted on time. July corn has rallied over 8.00 on increase in open interest. CN is becoming overbought but as long as open interest continues to increase it offset being overbought. CN is due for a correction. Weekly US corn exports were 45 mil bu vs 61 ly. Season to date exports are 1,306 vs 1,553 ly. Same group is using a US 2021/22 corn carryout at 1,150 mil bu vs USDA 1,440. This due to exports near 2,750 vs USDA 2,500 and Ethanol use near 5.425 vs USDA 5,375. US farmers have slowed new cash sales. Farmers have sold a higher precent of new crop to date than normal and at lower prices. They may now wait until the 2022 crop is planted.
WHEAT
Wheat futures traded higher. WN ended near 11.28 before testing 11.43. KWN ended near 11.88 before testing 11.98. MWN is ended near 11.79 before testing 11.88. Ukraine war continues. This could be pushing wheat higher if Black Sea and EU exports are reduced and Ukraine 2022 winter wheat crop is also reduced. July KC wheat has rallied on a lack of increase in open interest. KWN is not overbought. Tech signals suggest KWN could test 13.60. Weekly US wheat exports were 16 mil bu vs 23 ly. Exports to date are 664 vs 811 ly. Some feel US 2021/22 wheat carryout could be near USDA estimate of 678 mil bu. Some had hoped for higher US exports but US prices are not yet competitive vs EU and Russia. There is a wide range of guesses for US 2022 wheat crop from 1,810 to 1,960 vs USDA 1,910. This suggest a carryout from 450 to 815 versus USDA 731. Trade estimates US winter wheat crop rating near 33 pct G/E vs 32 last week.
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