Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was lower across the board with soybeans down $.10 – $.15, soybean meal down $4 – $6, while soybean oil was down 35 – 50. Support for May-23 soybeans is its 50 day MA at $15.01 ½. Egypt reportedly purchased 35k mt of vegetable oil in a tender today. Likely a mix of sunflower and soybean oil. Brazil’s soybean exports are expected to reach 15.15 mmt in April, up from last week’s forecast of 13.7 mmt. If realized it would be the 2nd highest export volume ever for any month. Spot board crush margins slipped $.06 today closing at $.98 bu., below $1.00 for the first time in 10 months. Export sales tomorrow expected in a range of 10 – 20 mil. bu. soybeans, 150 – 400k tons meal, and 5 – 15k tons oil.
CORN
Prices closed down $.05 – $.09 lower. Pressuring prices was the reopening of the Black Sea Grain Corridor along with improved prospects for rain across the SW plains in the extended forecasts. While vessels inspections of Ukraine’s agricultural exports have resumed after a 2 day pause, the likelihood of the BSGI being extended beyond the May 18th deadline seems to be diminishing. The heaviest rains in the 7 day period are expected across the South central and North central Midwest. A cooler than normal pattern is expected thru month end. May-23 surged to $.38 over July, a new high for the move before backing off. Last year this spread peaked at $.45 in early Mch-22, shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This same spread peaked at over $.70 on FND for May in 2021 on huge Chinese demand. Poland’s Ag. Minister confirmed they have reached an agreement with Ukraine to resume the transport of Ukraine’s ag. exports thru their country starting Friday. Ethanol production rebounded to 1,024 tbd last week, up from 959 tbd the previous week. Production was above expectations and the highest in 8 weeks. There was 103 mil. bu. of corn used in the production process, just below the pace needed to reach the current USDA corn usage forecast of 5.250 bil. bu. Gasoline demand fell 5% LW from the previous week and was down 4% from this week YA. This was the first time in 5 weeks demand was below the previous year’s usage. Export sales tomorrow expected in a range from 30 – 50 mil. bu. Spot corn for now has stalled out below the Jan-23 high of $6.86. We’ll likely need another wave of Chinese demand to take this resistance out and possibly challenge the $7 level. Support below the market is at the 100 and 50 MA’s, $6.57 ½, and $6.50 ½ respectively. Dec-23 corn failed on this week’s challenge of its 50 week MA at $5.70 ½.
WHEAT
Prices were down $.15 – $.20 across all 3 classes as markets respond to the reopening of the BSGC and better prospects for rain in the SW plains. Forecasts in the 6–7 day outlook are suggesting .75”- 1.25” rainfall in Central Kansas with lighter amounts in the Western third of the state. The coldest readings will likely be this weekend with a moderate to hard freeze impacting roughly the NW third of the nation’s midsection. MGEX May-23 violated support at its 50 day MA at $8.75 ¼. KC May-23 made a new low for the week. Next support is at its 100 day MA at $8.52. Jordan is seeking 120k mt of optional origin mill grade wheat setting an offer deadline of May 2nd. Russia’s Ag. Minister forecasts they’ll harvest 123 mmt of grain in 2023, down from a record 154 mmt in 2012. They expect wheat production at 78 mmt, down from over 100 mmt in 2022. French grain analyst Agritel, forecasts Russia’s wheat production will reach 83 mmt this year. Export sales tomorrow expected in a range from 5 – 15 mil.
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