Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures ended mixed. US soybean exports are 16 pct behind last year. Exports are near 1,712 mil bu vs 2,039 (-327). USDA goal is 2,115 vs 2,261 ly (-146). Talk that China may slow buying of US old crop soybeans raised concern about US final soybean exports. US barge freight is lower and could reflect drop in new nearby soybean export demand. Talk that US soybeans are competitive for export after August 1 may be helping new crop soybean futures. Lower Real triggered new Brazil farmer soybean selling. Talk that Indonesia will ban palmoil exports is helping soyoil. Trade estimates US 2022 soybean acres near 91.0 million acres, 2022 crop between 4,560-4,685 vs 4,435 ly. 2022/23 US soybean crush at 2,240 vs 2,215 and exports at 2,250 vs 2,115. This suggest US 2022/23 carryout at 250 vs USDA 2021/22 260. Key remains China economy and commodity import demand, Ukraine war and US summer weather.
CORN
Corn futures ended higher led by the December. Overnight corn futures were higher after USDA estimated US corn plantings less than expected and average. Corn futures found some selling on talk that China may be done buying US corn. Some commodity markets have seen profit taking on talk China covid lockdown could reduce their imports of energy, metals and grains. There was also talk that once Russia takes control of Ukraine ports they will resume Ukraine exports. Question is how quickly Ukraine infrastructure especially bridges and RR can be repaired once the war ends. USDA estimated US corn plantings near 7 pct vs 15 average. Most had hoped that dry weather this week could increase plantings before the weekend rains. Cold weather could limit new plantings. IL corn plantings is near 2 pct vs 21 average. IA is 2 vs 15 average. Trade estimates US 2022 corn acres near 89.5 million acres, 2022 crop between 14,680-14,890 vs 15,115 ly. 2022/23 US corn feed use at 5,650 vs 5,625, ethanol use at 5,400 vs 5,375 and exports at 2,500 vs 2,500. This suggest US 2022/23 carryout at 1,200 vs USDA 2021/22 1,440. Key remains China economy and commodity import demand, Ukraine war and US summer weather.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended higher. Futures tested session highs after USDA lowered US hard red winter crop ratings and estimated US spring wheat plantings less than expected. Dry 2 week US south plains forecast and wet north plains forecast supported higher prices. Weakness on US stocks and higher high in US Dollar offered resistance. WN ended near 10.95 with a range of 10.77 to 11.07. KWN ended near 11.63 with a range of 11.56 to 11.81. USDA rated US winter wheat crop 27 pct G/E vs 30 last week and 49 ly. MWN ended near 11.88 with a range of 11.72 to 11.99. Talk Russia will continue to try to export wheat offers key resistance. Trade estimates US 2022 wheat acres near 89.5 million acres, 2022 crop between 1,900-1,960 vs 1,646 ly. 2022/23 US wheat food use at 965 and exports at 850 vs 785. This suggest US 2022/23 carryout at 750 vs USDA 2021/22 678. Key remains Black Sea exports and US summer weather. Trade is looking for higher 2023 US, EU, Russia and Canada crops and lower Australia.
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