Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
July soybeans closed unchanged on the session after choppy and 2-sided trade. The early buying pushed the market up to the highest level since April 22. It will take a close over 17.04 ½ in order to assume a resumption of the uptrend with 17.63 ½ as an upside target. July soybean oil hit an all-time record high of 87.65 and the market closed sharply lower on the day. This represents a key reversal from an extreme overbought condition. RSI is at 89.5 and stochastic readings are near 91.5. On the other hand, July meal closed higher with an inside trading day. The market is still under the positive technical influence of the April 27 hook reversal. The lack of deliveries against the May contract on first notice day was seen as a positive development. Strength in the corn market and weakness in the US dollar plus a firm tone to energy markets helped to support.
CORN
July corn closed unchanged on the day after an early rally to new contract highs for a third session in a row. The market has already traded as high as 824 ½ as compared with the all-time record high for July corn at 826. While a bit overbought technically, traders are nervous with poor weather conditions for the end of the Brazil second crop corn growing season, and also worried with the hefty rain totals expected over the next five days for much of the central and Western Corn Belt. December corn also posted a new contract high with 770 ¼ as next swing target. There were no deliveries against the May corn contract; as expected.
WHEAT
July wheat closed sharply lower on the day as traders see forecast for much needed rain in the days ahead for the central and southern plains. Talk of the overbought condition of the market helped to spark some selling as well. July Kansas City wheat also closed sharply lower on the session after closing lower for the previous two sessions. The selling pushed the market down to the lowest level since April 8. There were 12 deliveries against the May wheat contract from trade expectations for 100 to 2000. There were 27 deliveries against Kansas City wheat and 39 contracts against Minneapolis wheat. July Minneapolis wheat is also trading sharply lower on the day and experienced follow-through selling from yesterday’s key reversal. Initial key support is all the way back at 11.34 ¼. Inflation, and food security issues could emerge at any time which is seen as a longer-term positive force, but the short term rain event is a negative for Kansas City wheat and a positive for Minneapolis wheat. Turkey bought near 270,000 tons of milling wheat at their tender.
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