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Ag Market View for Apr 4.22

SOYBEANS

Soybean futures found support on talk of higher demand for US soybeans. China is on holiday today and tomorrow. Some feel they could return as net buyers Wednesday. Weekly US soybean exports were 27 mil bu vs 14 ly. Season to date exports are near 1,623 vs 2,008 ly Informa dropped Brazil 2021 soybean crop 1.5 mmt to 125.5. Informa dropped Canada 2022 canola crop 250 mt to 21.3 vs 13.0 ly. Ukraine 2022 sunseed crop is est at 10.0 mmt vs 17.5 ly. SK traded below Fridays low before rallying to near 16.06. 20 day moving average is near 16.11. May Crude oil has a similar price pattern with 20 day near $105.34. BOK held support near 70.00. 20 day is near 73.58. SMK found support near 454. 20 day is near 475.69. Will see if demand for Crude and soy complex is enough to push futures over resistance.

Trading Candlestick Chart

CORN

Corn futures may also be adding Ukraine war premium back into prices. CZ continues to make new highs after USDA lower than expected estimate of US 2022 acres. Russia attacks on Ukraine ports could reduce Ukraine exports. USDA announced 1,084 mt US corn to China. 676 mt 2021/22 and 408 mt 2022/23. Weekly US corn exports were near 60 mil bu vs 85 ly. Season to date exports are 1,203 vs 1,423 ly. Informa reduced Brazil 2022 corn crop 8.5 mmt to 119.5. They also reduced EU 2022 corn crop 500 mt to 69.5. Ukraine 2022 corn crop is 20.0 mmt vs 41.9 last year. China corn sales announcement helped CK minus CZ spread bounce off last weeks low. Key is final US 2021/22 corn exports and 2022/23 US crop. Some could still see US 2021/22 corn exports closer to 2,750 mil bu vs USDA 2,500. That could drop US 2021/22 carryout to 1,120 vs USDA 1,440. Same group estimate US 2022 corn crop near 14,660 and US 2022/23 carryout near 770. CK retested 20 day near 7.47. Recent high was 7.70 after USDA acreage report. CZ made new high near 7.00. US 2022 corn yield below 175 and CZ could test 8.00.

WHEAT

Wheat futures are adding Ukraine war premium. Peace talks continue but shelling of Ukraine ports including Odessa raises concern about Black Sea wheat exports. USDA will release first weekly US winter wheat crop ratings today. US 10 day south plains weather forecast is dry and warm. Some rain is forecasted for next week but could favor the east. Weekly US wheat exports were near 11 mil bu vs 23 ly. Season to date exports are 631 vs 771 ly. Informa today raised Canada 2022 wheat crop 1.5 mmt to 32.5 versus 21.6 ly. Ukraine is 22.0 vs 33.0 ly. Higher Crude oil futures helped commodity and wheat futures despite higher US Dollar. WK held Fridays low near 9.82. KWK also held Fridays low near 10.12. Some feel lower US 2022 crop could help nearby KC wheat test 12.00. MWK held support near 10.64 and traded back over 10.79 resistance. MWK still supported by USDA estimate of US 2022 spring wheat acres lower than expected. Some could see US 2021/22 wheat carryout near 590 vs USDA 653. Same could see US 2022 crop near 1,810 mil bu and 2022/23 carryout near 425 vs USDA 736.

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