Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans ended higher. SK is near 16.30. SK is back over 50 DMA near 16.15. 20 day is near 16.63. OI has dropped from a high in March near 863,000 contracts to 755,000. Daily volume has dropped from 400,000 in March to 200,000. This adds to volatile price swings. Soybean futures found support on talk of higher demand for US soybeans. China is still on holiday today. Some feel they could return as net buyers Wednesday. US soybeans are competitive vs Brazil August forward. Informa dropped Brazil 2021 soybean crop 1.5 mmt to 125.5. Since Feb, South America soybean crop is down 660 mil bu. USDA has dropped global soybean export and crush demand 420 mil bu. Brazil Feb-March soybean exports were a record 21.0 mmt.
CORN
Corn futures ended higher. Combination of higher global export demand, lower Ukraine export supply and lower US 2022 corn acres offered support. CK is near 7.60 and back over the 20 DMA. OI has dropped from a high in March near 1,619,000 contracts to 1,476,000 pre USDA stocks and acreage report and has now increased to 1,544,000 post report. Daily volume has dropped from 500,000 in March to 250,000. This adds to volatile price swings. Since Feb, South America corn crop is down 200 mil bu. Russia attacks on Ukraine ports could reduce Ukraine exports. Ukraine may only export 765 mil bu corn vs USDA estimate of 1,080. Trade suggest China may have bought 80-115 mil bu more US corn that could be reported later this week or next week. This to replace 235 mil bu they bought from Ukraine. USDA has kept global corn export and domestic demand at a record 54.9 bil bu. US Feb corn exports were 261 mil bu vs 248 ly and inspections of 227. Difference could rail and truck to Mexico and Canada. CZ continues to make new highs after USDA lower than expected estimate of US 2022 acres. A 175 US 2022 corn yield would push CZ closer to 8.00.
WHEAT
Wheat traded higher as additional Ukraine war premium is being added back on and USDA weekly rating of US 2022 winter wheat crop lower than expected. USDA estimated US winter wheat crop 30 pct G/E vs 40 expected and 53 ly. KS 31, OK 22, TX 7, WA 65, OH 54, AR 80 and MO 58. US 10 day south plains weather forecast is dry and warm. Some rain is forecasted for next week but could favor the east. Without good April and May rains some could see US 2022 wheat crop closer to 1,810 mil bu versus USDA Outlook estimate of 1,940 and 1,646 last year. WK is near 10.45. Session high was 10.70. 20 DMA is near 10.77. OI has dropped from a high in Feb near 402,000 contracts to 344,000. Daily volume has dropped from 200,000 in March to 75,000. This adds to volatile price swings. Since Feb, USDA has dropped World feed, food and export demand 180 mil bu. USDA estimates EU, Russia and Ukraine wheat exports at 3,285 mil bu or 44 pct of World trade. Some feel final EU, Russia and Ukraine exports could be down 735 mil bu from USDA.
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