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Ag Market View for Dec 10th

SOYBEANS

Soybeans ended higher. Nearby soybean futures weekly range was 12.59-12.76. Key 50 day moving average resistance is near 12.84. Nearby soymeal futures weekly range was 368-380. Like soybeans, key resistance for soymeal is near 382. Nearby soyoil futures made a new weekly low. Range was 53.59-58.35. Some feel big soymeal move up vs soyoil could be near an end. Some feel in January, USDA could lower the final US 2021 crop and offset an expected decline in exports. Trade is also watching the fact that 30 pct of the South America 2022 crop is seeing drier than normal weather analyst est US 2021/22 soybean carryout near 375 mil bu vs USDA 340. Analyst est US 2022 soybean acres near 87.6 and carryout near 400.

CORN

Corn futures ended lower. Corn futures is seeing some long liquidation after recent increase in Managed fund buying and fact USDA did not lower US carryout or raise US demand. Fact USDA raised Ukraine supply may be offering resistance to futures. US domestic cash remains strong and offers support on breaks. End users and importers need to add to 2022 coverage. Some feel in January USDA could lower 2021 US crop and raise demand. Most analyst look for US carryout to be near 1,300 mil bu and CH to eventually trade over 6.00. Nearby corn futures made a new weekly high. Range was 5.85-5.95. Trade over 5.90 is supportive. Trade over 5.96 could suggest a new higher trend. Nearby corn futures gained on CZ22. Most of the friendly news is in the nearby. Normal 2022 US summer weather suggest strong resistance near 5.70 CZ22. Rains in California, snow in Rockies and rains in east Midwest linked to La Nina and strong PDO. Some feel this combination could suggest a dry US plains spring and US Midwest summer. This week, USDA raised World corn crop 4 mmt due to higher Ukraine and EU crop. They also raised domestic feed use 3 mmt and exports 1,4 mmt.

WHEAT

Wheat futures ended mixed. Nearby Chicago wheat weekly range was 7.69-7.83 and ending near 7.82. Nearby KC futures range was 7.93-8.27 and ended near 8.01. Nearby Minneapolis wheat range was 10.29-10.59 and settled near 10.21. Markets were on the defensive on concern that USDA will increase World supplies and that some World importers were slowing new buying and buying hand to mouth. There was some short covering after prices reached objectives and talk of lower Russia supplies and higher prices could support prices. There is also some increasing concern that La Nina and increase PDO could suggest drier US spring plains. This week, USDA raised World wheat crop 2 mmt due to higher Russia, Australia and Canada crop. They also raised domestic feed use 2 mmt and exports 1.0 mmt. End stocks were increased 3.0 mmt.

 

charts provided by Bloomberg Finance.

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