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Ag Market View for Dec 14th

SOYBEANS

Soybeans have found some technical support near 12.40 SH. SMH also found support near 359. Soymeal could be supported by domestic US logistic issues, higher US soymeal domestic demand and chart buying over 371 SMH.  Soyoil is still losing on new technical selling below 53 cents BOH. Dalian soyoil, palmoil and rapeoil were all lower. Soyoil is lowest level since August. Palmoil and rapeseed oil are at 2 week lows. There was talk that China were buyers of 10-12 US and Brazil soybean cargoes last week. Still, China needs to buy 6-7 cargoes per day to reach 100 mmt imports. Recent rains have helped Argentina crops. Brazil could see record early soybean harvest. Trade will be watching for any news from US Central Bank on inflation.

cargo ships on waterways

CORN

Corn futures found technical support near the 20 day moving average near 5.83. Trade over 5.96 CH could trigger new fund buying and raise debate among end users about 2022 corn futures prices. Talk of record US Feb-May total corn use is supportive. US rail freight is up on job shortages. US barge freight is higher on low US water levels. There is no rains in the forecast. Brazil est their 1st corn crop at 29 mmt. Beginning stocks were near 5 mmt. Total monthly demand is 6 mmt or 42 mmt Dec-June. Brazil may need to import corn May-June. Ukraine continues to export corn above last year. Most look for US weekly corn ethanol production to be near last week and last year, stocks near last week and below last year. Margins remain positive. Processors continue to try to add to coverage in a market where US farmers are reluctant sellers but would increase sales above 6.00 CH. Some US farmers may be holding back new corn sales has a hedge against higher prices in 2022. Trade continues to feel final US 2021/22 corn carryout could be lower than USDA Dec guess. Some are closer to 1,300 mil bu vs USDA 1,493. Key now is South America weather and demand for US corn. CH is gaining on CZ and CZ22 continues to gain on CZ23.

WHEAT

Wheat futures ended mixed. WH ended near 7.87 with a range of 7.77-7.97. KWH ended near 8.11 with a range 8.02-8.16. Some talk of increase restrictions as Omicron virus spreads weighed on key food and fuel sensitive  commodities. Support was found in some talk that seasonally wheat futures could be forging a bottom in prices. Yesterday, many World wheat buyers announced new tenders. Some buyers continue to be buyers hand to mouth hoping for lower prices and higher World 2022 supplies and lower prices. Some look for a rebound in US and Canada crops. There is concern about lower Russia crops. There is one constant in wheat prices. Some feel it is hard to sustain a wheat rally since there is a new World crop harvested every 6 months. Still in 2022, Some Weather watchers are concerned that dry US plains weather could extend into the summer. Some even fear that a ridge could develop over the US Plains and SE and prompt a warmer and drier summer. Normal weather would send prices lower April, 2022 forward. Dry weather could send prices higher led by KC.

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