Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans futures ended unchanged. Talk of higher World 2022 soybean supply and slower than hoped US soybean export demand especially to China offers resistance. Increase talk of drier S Brazil and NE Argentina weather forecast and positive US soybean crush margins offer support. US November soybean crush was 179.4 mil bu vs 184.0 in October and 181.0 last year. Soyoil stocks actually dropped to 1,832 mil lbs vs 1,903 expected and 1,835 in October. This is helping soyoil futures. Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated near 1,100-1,775 mt versus 1,638 last week. US soybean export commit is near 38.8 mmt vs 52.8 last year. USDA goal is 55.8 vs 61.7 last year. SH could remain in a 12.25-13.25 range until more is known about South America weather and USDA Jan report numbers
CORN
Corn futures ended lower. Some feel increase selling may be linked to failure for the market to trade over key resistance. Today, CH tested key resistance near 5.96 but settled back to near key support near 5.83, Some feel CH could be in a 5.40-6.00 range until more is known about USDA Jan numbers and US 2022 spring and summer weather. NOAA will release new 30 and 90 day forecast on Thursday. They are expected to keep most of US dry and warm. Also tomorrow Informa will update their estimate of US 2022 planted acres by crop. Some feel large Index fund roll out of corn into soymeal has more to do with price action than normal fundamentals. US weekly ethanol production was down slightly from last week buy up 13 pct vs last year. Stocks were up 2 pct from last week but still down 9 pct from ly. Margins have backed off from last weeks highs but are still positive. Weekly US corn export sales are estimated near 1,200-2,000 mt vs 1,132 last week. Total commit is near 36.5 mmt vs 39.6 last year. USDA goal is 63.5 mmt vs 69.9 ly.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended lower. Some feel large Index fund roll out of wheat into soymeal has more to do with price action especially in wheat than normal fundamentals. Covid sensitive markets are also lower. Concern about less US stimulus and inflation is also weighing on energies and some commodities. WH ended near 7.56. Range was 7.51-7.87. Sell stops were hit below the100 day moving average near 7.62. KWH ended near 7.84. Range was 7.84-8.11. Sell stops were hit below 50 day moving average near 8.00 and Dec 9 low near 7.87. MWH ended near 10.09. Range was 10.02-10.20. Sell stops were hit below the 450 day moving average near 10.06. Besides the Index fund roll. Wheat continues to lose value after USDA raised World wheat supplies. Informa will be out tomorrow with new estimates of 2022 US planted acres by crop. Informa estimates lower Wheat futures due to lower demand and higher 2022 World supply. Weekly US wheat export sales ae estimated near 200-400 mt. Total commit is near 14.5 mmt vs 19.1 ly. USDA goal is 22.8 vs 27.0 ly.
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