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Ag Market View for Dec 16th


Soybeans and soyoil ended higher. Strong US cash basis and talk of drier S Brazil and NE Argentina weather offered support. SH range was 12.58 to 12.80. Weekly US soybean export sales were 48 mil bu. Total commit is 1,474 mil bu vs 1,972 last year. USDA goal is 2,050 vs 2,265 ly. Some feel USDA could drop export goal in January. USDA est Brazil soybean crop near 144 mmt. Some Commercials are as high as 150 mmt. Informa raised US 2021 soybean crop to 4,473 mil bu vs USDA 4,425. Informa estimated US 2022 soybean acres at 88.8 million vs 87.7 last year. WCB is up 300, WCB up 300, Delta up 300, ND down 500. They estimated the 2022 soybean crop at 4,571 mil bu. They est 2022 soybean double crop acres at 4.5 million vs 3.9 last year.


Corn futures ended higher. Some feel that prices found support as Index funds completed their rebalancing. Strong US cash basis and talk of drier S Brazil and Argentina weather offered support. Ag Rural lowered their est of Brazil corn crop to 114.4 mmt vs 115.5 and USDA 118.0. Weekly US corn export sales were 76 mil bu. Total commit is 1,516 mil bu vs 1,634 last year. USDA goal is 2,500 vs 2,753 ly. Informa raised US 2021 corn crop to 15,347 mil bu vs USDA 15,062. Informa estimated US 2022 corn acres at 91.5 million vs 94.0 last year. WCB was down 700, ECB down 300 and ND down 750. They estimated the 2022 corn crop at 14,957 mil bu. They est 2022 prevent plant acres at 2.2 mil vs 1.8 ly. CH held support near the 20 day moving average and 5.83. Long term up trend from the Sep 10 low near 5.06 is still intact. Initial resistance is 5.96 then 6.00. Some thought CH would trade over 6.00 early in 2022 due to increase demand and some weather premium if US 2022 spring and summer is warmer and drier than normal. Lower US Dollar and higher energy prices also offered support to corn.


Wheat rallied off recent lows on talk Index funds may be done reallocating longs out of wheat futures. Weekly US wheat export sales were 22 mil bu. Total commit is 559 mil bu vs 722 last year. USDA goal is 840 vs 992 ly. Informa estimated US 2022 all wheat acres at 48.6 million vs 46.7 last year. Informa est 2022 US spring wheat acres at 12.7 vs 11.4 ly. Winter wheat acres were 34.0 vs 33.6. HRW up 500, SRW down 100. They estimated the 2022 wheat crop at 2,047 mil bu. They est 2022 CRP acres at 22.2 vs 20.5 ly. Total US crop acres are est at 317.1 vs 317.0 ly. WH traded back above 100 day moving average near 7.63. KWH had an outside day and traded back over 50 day moving average near 8.01. MWH traded between 10.03 support and 10.28 resistance and ended near 10.26.

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