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Ag Market View for Dec 23rd

SOYBEANS

Soybeans ended higher. For the month SH is up 114 cents, SMH is up $59 and BOH is marginally lower. SN22-SX22 soybean spread is up to +87. Next resistance is near +100 then June, 2014 high near +140.   Dalian soybean futures were lower. Soymeal, RSO and SBO were higher. China soybean crush margins are trending lower. Soybean open interest is up 45,000 contracts since early November. There is also talk that some large Managed funds are not yet buying grains. They could next week if South Brazil, NE Argentina and Paraguay weather remain warm and dry. Weekly US soybean export sales were near 811 mt. Total commit is 40.9 mmt vs 53.9 ly. USDA est US soybean exports near 55.8 mmt vs 61.7 ly. Some look for China to take 102.0 mmt vs 98.0 last year. US 29.0 vs 35.0 ly. Brazil 65.0 vs 56.0 ly. Talk is that current weather is stressing Brazil soybean crop. USDA est Brazil soybean crop at 144.0 vs 138.0 ly. Weekly US SBO sales were 109 mt with India 53. Weekly US soymeal sales were 300 mt. Total commit is near 6.0 mmt vs 5.7 ly. USDA goal is 12.9 vs 12.5 ly.

American farmhouse

CORN

Corn futures ended higher. Trade/close over 6.00 CH could suggest a higher trend. There is talk that some large Managed funds are not yet buying grains. They could next week if South Brazil, NE Argentina and Paraguay weather remains warm and dry. For the month, CH is up 39 cents. CN22-CZ22 corn spread is up to +53. Next resistance is near +65. May, 2011 high was +111. Talk of higher Jan-May demand for US corn and dry and warm weather over parts of South America is attracting buying of old crop futures vs new. Weekly US corn export sales were near 982 mt. Total commit is 39.5 mmt vs 42.2 ly. USDA est US corn exports near 63.5 mmt vs 69.9 ly. China has bought 12.2 US corn and there is 2.7 in unknown. Some look for China to take 27.0 mmt vs 30.0 last year. US 14.0 vs 21.0 ly. Ukraine 12.0 vs 8.0 ly. Talk is that current weather is stressing Brazil 1st crop and could stress 2nd crop. USDA est Brazil corn crop at 118.0 vs 87.0 ly and exports 43.0 mmt vs 18.5 last year. There is already talk that a lower Brazil 2022 supply could trigger imports as soon as March. Weekly US Sorghum export sales were near 422 mmt. China bought 412. Total commit is near 5.1 mmt vs 5.0 last year.

WHEAT

Wheat futures ended marginally higher. WH is near 8.15. KWH is near 8.61. KWH-WH spread is up to +47. June,2014 high was +140. Some feel KC should gain on Chicago due to short and long term dry and warm US south plains weather forecast. Close over 8.44 KWH suggest a test of 9.00. Weekly US wheat export sales were 425 mt. Total commit is 15.6 vs 20.0 ly. USDA goal is 22.8 vs 27.0 ly. Wheat is all about US 2022 weather and Russia export pace. Currently, USDA estimates World 2021/22 wheat crop near 778 mmt vs 776 last year. China is 136 and India is 109 of the total. US is 22.8 vs 27.0 ly. Russia is 75.5 vs 85.3 ly. EU is 138.7 vs 126.9 ly. Some feel World production could drop 5-6 mmt. World trade is a record 205 mmt vs 201 ly. Russia is 36 vs 38 ly. Recent talk of lower 2022 quota suggest exports could be closer to 31.Some feel final trade could be up 5.6 mmt. This could drop World wheat end stocks 10-12 mmt.

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