Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures ended lower. US stocks were higher. Less concern about Omicron virus offered support to energies and equities. Concern about slower demand for US soybean sales offered resistance. EPA failed to announce news on biodiesel and advanced biofuel mandates. SF rejected 12.74 high and is back to key support near 12.45. Some feel that increase South America supplies and slower US export demand could suggest SH may test 12.00. Bulls will need less than normal South America weather to help prices move higher. USDA est US 2021/22 soybean supply near 4,696 mil bu vs 4,761 last year. Total demand is estimated near 4,356 mil bu vs 4,505 last year. This suggest carryout near 340 vs 256 last year. Some feel USDA could drop demand 100 mil bu and increase carryout to 440.
CORN
Corn futures ended higher after EPA released ethanol mandates. CH ended near 5.86. Range was 5.78-5.88. Some had estimated CH range at 5.60 to 5.90. Trade over 5.86 was supportive. Next resistance is near 5.94. US corn exports are running 16 pct behind USDA goal. Some are concerned that USDA could drop exports on Thursday. Higher than expected US October Ag exports could slow any changes by USDA WOB. Weekly US ethanol production could be above last week. Stocks could also be above last week. Big headline was that EPA estimated 2020 ethanol blend at 12.6 billion, 2021 blend 13.8 billion and 2022 15.0 billion. 2022 was as expected. There is talk that EPA may reject a significant number of small refinery waivers. USDA will announce $100 million for biofuel infrastructure aid. USDA estimates US 2021/22 Ethanol corn use near 5,250 mil bu. Some could see final use near 5,400. USDA estimates US total 2021/22 16,323 mil bu vs 16,055 last year. Total demand is estimate near 14,830 mil bu vs 14,819 last year. This suggest carryout near 1,493 vs 1,236 last year. Some feel carryout could be closer to near 1,343 mil bu. over the next 30 days Prices may depend upon any US inflation action and South America weather. Some feel a drier S Brazil and NE Argentina weather could impact Brazil corn crop more than Argentina.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended higher. WH ended near 8.08. Range was 7.97-8.13. WH held 8.00 support. Resistance is near 8.23. KWH had an inside day and ended near 8.28. Range was 8.17-8.31. Next resistance is near 8.38. MWH ended near 10.36. MWH traded over 10.31 resistance. Next resistance is near 10.50. Some of the rebound today may be linked to uncertainty over US and Russia relations. Some feel there may have been limited progress on troop buildup. Some sources now feel Russia could invade Ukraine either late December or early January. USDA estimates US 2021/22 supply near 2,606 mil bu vs 2,957 last year. Total demand is estimated near 2,023 mil bu vs 2,111 last year. This suggest a carryout near 583 mil bu versus 845 last year. HRW carryout 299 vs 428 ly, SRW 93 vs 85, HRS 127 vs 235 and White wheat 46 vs 70. Key will be US/World 2022/23 supply and demand. Some look at US 2022 wheat crop near 2,080 mil bu and carryout near 940. Our weather guy still looks for drier than normal US spring plains weather which could lower US 2022 crop and carryout.
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