Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans ended higher and took back some of Thursdays losses. Talk of a drier Argentina 2 week weather forecast offered support. Noon maps did add rains for parts of Argentina but our weather watcher feels the maps may be overdone. Nearby soybean futures has had a 15.59 to 6.33 weekly range. USDA lowered US 2021/22 carryout to 315. Some could see exports closer to 2,160 versus USDA 2,050 which could lower US carryout to 215. Same group estimates US 2022 acres near 89.0 vs 87.2 ly. A yield of 51.5 and demand near 4,715 mil bu suggest a 2022/23 US carryout of only 75 mil bu. CONAB shocked the trade with an estimate of the Brazil soybean crop of 125 mmt vs USDA 134. Lower World soybean supply and higher demand should push soybean futures higher in volatile swings.
CORN
Corn futures ended higher and followed a higher trade in wheat and Crude and a lower trade in equites. Ukraine has complained that Russia Navy maneuvers had stopped their grain vessels from leaving their ports. Some feel Ukraine still has 700 mil bu of corn to export this market year. Nearby corn futures has had a 6.24 to 6.62 weekly range. USDA kept US 2021/22 carryout to 1,540. Some could see exports closer to 2,650 versus USDA 2,425 which could lower US carryout to 1,220. Same group estimates US 2022 corn acres near 91.0 vs 93.4 ly. A yield of 180.5 and demand near 15,035 mil bu suggest a 2022/23 US carryout of only 1,100 mil bu. CONAB estimate of the Brazil corn crop was 112 mmt vs USDA 114. There was concern that Argentina corn crop could be closer to 48 mmt vs USDA 54. Some even fear without good Feb rains the final crop could be as low as 2018 38 mmt. Increase US farmer selling and fact US corn exports are down 20 pct from ly triggered long liquidation on Thursday near 6.60 CH. Lower World supply and higher demand should push corn futures higher in volatile swings.
WHEAT
Wheat futures were higher. WH is near 7.97. This weeks range was 7.54 to 8.01. KWH is near 8.22 with a range of 7.77 to 8.31. MWH is near 9.61. US wheat export prices are a premium to EU and Black Sea. Unnamed US government officials were reportedly saying that there is some evidence that Russia could invade Ukraine as soon as next week. Ukraine has complained that Russia Navy maneuvers had stopped their grain vessels from leaving their ports. EU and Black Sea wheat prices are the lowest to buyers. One group estimates US 2022 acres near 48.0 vs 46.7 ly. A yield of 49.0 and demand near 2,050 mil bu suggest a carryout of 585 mil bu vs USDA baseline of 703 and their 2021/22 estimate of 648. Some feel wheat futures will continue to be a follower unless Russia invades Ukraine and new export business comes to US or dry US south plains weather continues into the spring.
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