Written Commentary
Soybeans, soyoil, soymeal, corn and wheat traded higher. Bitter cold US Weather offered support. Energy markets were also higher. Gold was lower.
SOYBEANS
Soybean traded higher. Talk of drier Argentina weather and record Jan NOPA soybean crush offered support. Higher World vegoil prices helped soyoil gain on soymeal. Last week’s nearby soybean futures range was 13.37-14.09. Some feel this could be the range until more is known about South America supplies and China demand. Weekly US soybean exports dropped to 30 mil bu versus 70 last week and 37 last year. Season to date exports are near 1,840 versus 1,038 last year. Some still feel final US soybean exports could be higher than USDA last guess. Jan US NOPA soybean crush was a record 184 mil bu. Slowdown in US soybean export pace could limit upside in prices. Approaching Brazil harvest could also offer resistance. On Friday, USDA will have their annual Outlook Forum. They will be releasing their first US 2021/22 soybean supply and demand. They will be using their baseline acres, trend yield and trend demand numbers. Trade looks for 89.9 soybean acres versus 83.1 last year.
CORN
Corn futures ended higher. Good weekly US corn exports and talk of higher total US corn demand offered support. Cold US weather could also increase corn feed, and fuel demand. Last weeks nearby corn futures range was 5.24-5.74. Some feel this could be the range until more is known about South America supplies and final US demand. Weekly US corn exports were near 52 mil bu versus 31 last year. Season to date exports are near 897 mil bu versus 487 last year. Some still feel final US corn exports could be higher than USDA last guess. There is talk that some US corn plants are reducing production and selling Nat Gas at profits. On Friday, USDA will have their annual Outlook Forum. They will be releasing their first US 2021/22 corn supply and demand. They will be using their baseline acres, trend yield and trend demand numbers. Trade looks for 92.9 million US 2021 corn acres. Trade looks for a US 2021 crop near 15,243 mil bu and 2021/22 carryout near 1,725 mil bu.
WHEAT
Wheat futures traded higher. Cold us weather added additional Weather premium. Some of the US winter wheat crop may have been stressed due record cold US temps. Chicago wheat futures are testing last weeks high near 6.60 due to cold US weather. Weekly US wheat exports were near 14 mil bu versus 18 last year. Season to date exports are near 639 mil bu versus 651 last year. Russia farmers have slowed new cash selling. NOAA suggest some weakening of La Nina in April. This could offer a normal spring weather across most of the US plains and Midwest. On Friday, USDA will have their annual Outlook Forum. They will be releasing their first US 2021/22 wheat supply and demand. They will be using their baseline acres, trend yield and trend demand numbers. Trade looks for 45.3 all wheat acres. Trade estimates US 2021 all Wheat crop near 1,874 mil bu and carryout near 769.
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