Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans ended lower. Word of Russia invading Ukraine triggered massive grain and energy short covering. Trade also went to safety in US Dollar. Near the overnight highs, soybean and soymeal longs took profits. US farmer has also been an active seller of beans. On Tuesday, there was talk that some managed funds were going to take profits in soybean due to improved South America weather, fact China is not buying US old crop soybeans and that today USDA would issue bearish US 2022/23 soybean supply and demand. USDA estimated US 2022 soybean acres at 88.0, yield 51.5 and total crop near 4,490 mil bu. Total demand is 4,525 with carryout 305. Some are closer to 100. USDA 2021/22 carryin was 325. USDA is using a 2021/22 carryin at 325 vs some at This weighed on SX22. Trade estimates US soybean export sales near 500-1,200 old crop vs 1,361 last week and 450-850 new crop vs 1,526 last week.
CORN
Corn futures had a wild ride after Russia began to invade Ukraine. CK ended near 6.86. Overnight high was 7.16. It is very difficult to follow the events in Ukraine, Russia end goal and all the rumors. So far, Russia has been quick and precise to attack Ukraine military bases and air defense. Some feel Russia wants to replace Ukraine government. There are even rumors that as early as next week Russia will resume Black Sea corn exports at discounted prices to gain market share. World is waiting for Putin’s next step. Word of Russia invading Ukraine triggered massive grain and energy short covering. Trade also went to safety in US Dollar. Near the overnight highs, longs took profits in the grains. US farmer has also been an active seller of corn. On Tuesday, there was talk that some managed funds were going to take profits in corn due to improved South America weather and that today USDA would issue bearish US 2022/23 corn supply and demand. USDA left US 2022 corn acres at 92.0, yield 181.0 and total crop near 15,240 mil bu vs their initial baseline estimate. Total demand is 14,839 with carryout 1,977. Most are closer to 1,100.Their US 2021/22 carryin is 1,540 vs some at 1,220. Trade estimates weekly US corn export sales near 500-900 mt vs 820 last week. China has 12.0 mmt US corn export commit with 4.0 shipped to date.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended higher. It is very difficult to follow the events in Ukraine, Russia end goal and all the rumors. So far, Russia has been quick and precise to attack Ukraine military bases and air defense. Some feel Russia wants to replace Ukraine government. There are even rumors that as early as next week Russia will resume Black Sea wheat exports at discounted prices to gain market share. Trade was worried about 7-8 mmt of Black Sea wheat exports than may not get exported. World is waiting for Putin’s next step. Word of Russia invading Ukraine triggered massive grain and energy short covering. Some were concerned wheat futures could trade off session highs if today USDA would issue bearish US 2022/23 wheat supply and demand. USDA estimated US 2022 all wheat acres at 48.0, yield 49.1 and total crop near 1,940 mil bu. Total demand is 1,977 with carryout 731. Some are closer to 585.Weekly US wheat export sales were 100-450 mr vs 118 last week.
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