Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soy complex saw a wave of profit talking and long liquidation in front of Conab’s estimate of Brazil crops tomorrow, USDA report on Wednesday and rains that are forecast next week across the dry areas of South America. US Ag Sec is pressing China to buy the $16 billion dollar deficit in Phase 1 trade agreement. China may be asking for US Sep soybean export prices. Weekly US soybean exports were 33 mil bu vs 70 last year. Season to date exports are 1,163 mil bu vs 1,511 ly (-348) USDA goal is 2,050 vs 2,265 ly (-215). USDA could raise US 2021 crop this week and lower export demand. SH had an inside day. Support is near 13.50. Resistance is now near 14.00. SMH also had an inside day. Support is near 400. Resistance now 420. BOH had an outside day. Support 55. Resistance 60.
CORN
Corn futures ended lower. Corn saw a wave of profit talking and long liquidation in front of Conab’s estimate of Brazil crops tomorrow, USDA report on Wednesday and rains that are forecast next week across the dry areas of South America. US Ag Sec is pressing China to buy the $16 billion dollar deficit in Phase 1 trade agreement. Weekly US corn exports were 40 mil bu vs 53 last year. Season to date exports are 554 mil bu vs 652 ly (-98) USDA goal is 2,500 vs 2,753 ly (-253). USDA announced 132 mt US corn sold to Mexico, 77 mt 2021/22. And 55 mt 2022/23. USDA could raise US 2021 crop this week and raise demand especially ethanol. Some feel USDA eventually will need to also increase exports. Weather maps still forecast good rains next week across parts of south Brazil and north Argentina. South Argentina could miss the rains. Our weather guy does not see a change in the overall weather pattern. Some feel parts of Paraguay crops, first season Brazil and Argentina corn crops have seen irreversible damage. CH had an outside day and traded below Fridays low. CH also traded below the 20 day moving average near 5.98. Support is 5.87. Resistance 6.17.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended mixed. WH ended near 7.62 up 3 cents. KWH ended up 3 cents and near 7.78. MWH ended lower and near 9.13. MWH continues to lose vs KC as the market shifts from last years lower US and Canada spring wheat crops to concern about US HRW crop conditions. Weekly US wheat exports were 8 mil bu vs 10 last year. Season to date exports are 456 mil bu vs 562 ly (-106) USDA goal is 840 vs 992 ly (-162). USDA could lower US exports this week. Wheat trade continues to trend lower on slow US wheat exports, higher US Dollar and talk USDA could increase US 2022 winter wheat acres on Wednesday. Trade estimate US 2022 Winter wheat acres at 34.3 million vs 33.6 last year. Trade also estimates US 2021/22 US wheat carryout near 608 mil bu vs 598 previous. Trade also estimates World 2021/22 wheat end stocks near 278.6 mmt vs 278.2 previous. Trade also estimates US Dec 1 wheat stocks near 1,421 mil bu vs 1,703 ly.
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