Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans and soymeal traded higher the first day of 2022. Concern about the Argentina crop conditions added to new buying. There was also talk that one trading house lowered their estimate of the Brazil soybean crop 11 mmt to 134.0. Soybean futures started higher after South Brazil and Argentina weekend rains were less than expected. Low weekly exports may have triggered new selling. Weekly US exports were 43 mil bu vs 63 last week and 65 last year. Season to date exports were 1,113 mil bu vs 1,441 last year. USDA goal is 2,050 vs 2,265 ly. Fact some are lowering Brazil soybean crop 10-11 mmt could raise US exports. Lower SA soybean supply could result in 100/150 more US soybean exports. Recent SH high was 13.84. SMH 415. BOH 57.80. Lower SA supplies could test resistance.
CORN
Corn futures ended lower. Higher US Dollar which weighed on most commodity prices weighed on corn futures. There was also talk that US farmers could increase cash sales in the new tax year. Corn futures also started higher after South Brazil and Argentina weekend rains were less than expected. There was also talk that one analyst lowered their South America corn crop estimate to 14-18 mmt if Jan S Brazil and Argentina weather remains dry. Low weekly exports may have triggered new selling. Weekly US exports were 23 mil bu versus 37 last week and 43 last year. Season to date exports were 507 mil bu versus 599 last year. USDA goal is 2,500 vs 2,753 ly. Some fear USDA could raise US 2021 corn crop on Jan 12 which could offset higher demand. This would keep US carryout near 1,500. Range of private guesses for US 2021 harvested corn acres is 85.0-86.0 vs USDA 85.1. Yield ranges from 177-179 versus USDA 177. Range of Dec 1 stocks is 11,700-12,100 vs 11,294 ly. Range of US 2021/22 corn carryout is 1,325-1,505 vs USDA 1,193. Lower SA corn supply could result in 200/250 more US corn exports. Recent CH high was near 6.17. Higher demand could test resistance. Size of US 2021 and USDA estimate of demand could be key.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended lower. WH ended near 7.58. Range was 7.52-7.82. KWH ended near 7.92. Range 7.85-8.17. MWH ended near 9.67. Range was 9.64-9.94. Some feel that slow US exports and fact US is not yet competitive to World buyers offered resistance. There was also talk that lower US spring wheat futures may suggest that
all wheat futures are overpriced. Wheat futures are lower due to low weekly US exports and talk cold US weather may not have hurt the US HRW crop. Weekly US exports were only 5 mil bu vs 10 last week and 17 last year. Season to date exports were 444 mil bu vs 551 last year. USDA goal is 840 vs 992 ly. US S Plains weekend precip was less than forecasted. Recent WH high 8.24, KWH 8.72, MWH 10.36. Higher S Hemisphere supply is negative. Russia may not export 36 mmt wheat. World demand could increase 5-7 mmt, 2021 stocks could drop 10 mmt thus 2022 N Hemisphere must increase 15-20 mmt to help increase export supply limit price gain.
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