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Ag Market View for Jan 3.24


Prices are steady to $.01 higher at midday recovering after old crop futures established fresh contract lows in early trade.  The next major support for Mch-24 is $4.47, the spot low in early Dec-23 on the weekly chart.  Improved weather and crop prospects in South America continue to weigh on commodity valuations.  Corn grind for the production of ethanol at 455 mil. bu. in Nov-23, was above the Ave. trade estimate of 451 mil., however within the range of estimates.  In the first 3 months of the 2023/24 MY corn usage has reached 1.345 bil. bu. up 5% from YA vs. the current USDA forecast of up 3%.   Tomorrow’s EIA report at 10 AM CST will likely show a seasonal drop in production, well below the 1,107 pbd pace from the previous week.  With the recent sell-off US corn prices are below SA origin thru April-24.    

Grain Silos


With the exception of Jan-24 beans the soy complex was higher across the board.  Deferred bean prices were $.03 – $.05 higher, meal was steady to up $2, while oil was 25 – 35 higher.  Mch-24 beans briefly traded below yesterday’s lows before recovering.  Still a gap on the charts from yesterday open between $12.90 ¾ – $12.96 ¾.  Next resistance for Mch-24 oil is the 50 day MA at 50.39.  Above average rainfall is expected across central and northern growing regions of Brazil into midmonth helping restore soil moisture following months of drought conditions.  Weather in much of southern Brazil and Argentina is expected to remain favorable with a mix of sunshine and rain over the next week to 10 days.  Census crush for Nov-23 at just over 200 mil. bu. was in line with expectations.  In the 1st 3 months of the 2023/24 MY cumulative crush has reached 576 mil. bu. up 4% form YA, in line with the current USDA forecast of 2.30 bil. bu.  Soybean oil stocks rose for the 1st time in 7 months to 1.592 bil. lbs. however fell short of the average trade est. of 1.657 bil.  The stocks data suggests stronger than expected bean oil usage in Nov-23.   Spot margins were able to perk up a bit today, up $.12 ½ to $.97 ¾ bu.  


Prices were $.04 – $.08 lower across all three classes today in 2 sided trade.  Mch-24 Chicago fell back below the $6.00 level on an intraday basis, however remains near the midpoint of the Nov-Dec range.  Mch-24 KC slipped to a fresh 1 month low.  Several states released updated crop ratings as of the end of 2023.  Improved conditions were seen in KS, OK, TX and SD, with lower ratings in CO, MT and NE.  So far markets are shrugging off forecasts for an artic blast across wheat areas of Northern Ukraine and Russia by late next week.  Taiwan issued a tender seeking 83k mt of US milling wheat for Mch-24 shipment.  India’s Govt. maintains stockpiles of wheat will hold above threshold levels of 7.5 mmt by April, despite Jan 1 stocks at a 7 year low of 16.5 mmt.    

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