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Ag Market View for Jan 5 22

SOYBEANS

Mixed trade in soy complex. Soyoil gained on soymeal on new speculative buying soyoil. Some feel higher palmoil prices could increase demand for US soyoil. There is also talk that US 2022 demand for soyoil biofuel will increase. Soybeans are supported by warm and dry weather forecast for S Brazil and Argentina and wet forecast for NE Brazil. Weekly US soybean export sales are est near 400-1,300 mt vs 524 last week. Trade will have to decide soon if SH needs to trade over 14.00 to ration demand or trade lower into and after USDA report to buy new soybean demand. Funds have been net sellers 3,000 soymeal and bought 3,000 soybeans and 5,000 soyoil. We estimate Managed funds to be net long 107,000 soybeans, 53,000 soymeal and 51,000 soyoil. Index fund rebalance starts Monday. Funds will buy 21,000 soybeans, 24,000 soymeal and sell 6,000 soyoil over 5 days. All during USDA report.

CORN

Corn futures ended lower and near session lows. On again and off again corn futures trade was off again. Some long liquidation after recent rally weighed on futures. Higher Tuesday trade linked in part to rumors of China interest in US corn and dry S Brazil and Argentina weather. Today, corn may have followed wheat lower. Weekly ethanol production was up 12 pct from last year. Stocks were down 8 pct from ly. Margins have turned lower from 5 week highs. Weekly US corn export sales are estimated near 500-1,200 mt vs 1,246 last week. There is talk that South America corn production could be down 8-10 mmt from USDA December estimate. Argentina 2 week forecast is warm and dry. Early crop there is pollinating in 100 degree temps. Matif corn futures were near 5 week high, Net EU import/exports are running 3 mmt below last year. Ukraine Sep-Nov corn exports suggest annual exports near 33 mmt vs USDA est of 32.5, Some est that Ukraine has shipped 10-12 mmt corn to China. Funds were net sellers 6,000 corn. We estimate Managed funds be long 376,000 corn. Index fund rebalance starts Monday. 

WHEAT

Wheat futures ended lower on chart based selling and slow US export pace. Some feel fact US wheat prices are not competitive to World buyers could force USDA to lower their export guess and raise US 2021/22 wheat carryout. There may also be some unwinding of long wheat and short corn spreads. Weekly US wheat export sales are estimated at 150-400 mt vs 199 last week. Since the recent highs near 8.02, WH has dropped 47 cents.  KWH has dropped 94 cents from 8.71 to 7.87. MWH has dropped 107 cents from 10.65 to 9.51. Some feel that fact this week. USDA dropped US HRW 2022 crop ratings could eventually offer support. Still US south plains farmers would rather have need rains in April than December. Most feel recent cold temps should not harm US 2022 HRW crop. US 2022 SRW crop ratings were above last year. Increase snow cover across US north plains should add moisture there. EU and Black Sea temps are above normal and crops there are rated average. Higher 2021/22 south hemisphere wheat crops have also contributed to lower prices.

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