Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans ended sharply higher. Talk that 10 days of hot and dry Argentina weather triggered some summer buying of US soybean export elevation. There was also talk a lower final soybean crop could also lower their soymeal exports and raise US demand. There was also talk that Index funds may have started to rebalance positions today by buying soybeans and soymeal. They were scheduled to start buying Monday. SH traded over 14.00 on talk US summer fob soybean values were trading higher. Nearby fob is near 115. April through July is 85. Sep traded at 185. SMH traded over 420 on same concern that a lower Argentina soybean crop could increase demand for US soymeal. USDA est World 2021/22 soymeal exports at 71 mmt. Of the total, Argentina is 29, Brazil is 17 and US is 13.
CORN
Corn futures ended marginally higher. Higher soybean and soymeal values offered support to corn. Concern increased due to hot and dry SA weather. There were estimates that 10 days of hot/dry Argentina weather could lower Argentina corn crop. There were estimates of a crop below 47 mmt vs USDA 49.5. Brazil’s corn estimates were as low as 113 mmt vs USDA 118. This week, Argentina dropped their rating of their corn crop from 58 G/E to 45. They also raised the percent of the crop soils that are dry from 31 to 42. Next 10 days Argentina could see well below normal rains and well above normal temps with some daytime highs exceeding 100F. Next week, USDA will revise US 2021 corn crop, estimate US Dec 1 corn stocks, US 2021/22 corn carryout and World 2021/22 corn end stocks. Trade estimates the US corn crop at 15,069 mil bu vs USDA 15,062. Trade also estimates Dec 1 corn stocks at 11,602 mil bu vs 11,294 last year. Trade estimates US 2021/22 corn carryout near 1,472 mil bu vs 1,493. Finally, World corn stocks are estimated near 304.1 mmt vs 305.5 previous. Some fear USDA could increase the US 2021 crop without equal increase in demand.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended higher. For the week, Wheat futures continued to slip lower. Better US north plains weather offset continued dryness in US south plains. Higher Argentina and Australia crop supplies helped offset lower US and Canada crops. French wheat prices also slid lower as French exporter loss demand to Egypt and Algeria to Black Sea and China to Australia. Next week, will issue its first estimate of US 2022 winter wheat acres, estimate US Dec 1 wheat stocks, US 2021/22 wheat carryout and World 2021/22 wheat end stocks. Trade estimates the US 2022 winter wheat acres at 34.2 mil vs 33.6 last year. Trade also estimates Dec 1 wheat stocks at 1,421 mil bu vs 1,780 last year. Trade estimates US 2021/22 wheat carryout near 608 mil bu vs 598. Finally, World wheat stocks are estimated near 278.6 mmt vs 278.2 previous. Some fear USDA could lower US wheat exports and raise the US 2021/22 carryout. Key to long term prices remains 2022 north hemisphere weather.
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