Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Risk off. Soybean futures ended sharply lower on talk that 8 cargoes of US August soybeans were cancelled today. Most by China but a few by other countries. Increase soybean export demand was one of the keys to stabilize soybean futures. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil futures were all lower. It is hard to justify the steep slide in prices but bull fundamentals are taking a back seat to concerns that inflation and a recession would lower the demand for food. US soybean export commit is near 2,208 mil bu vs 2,272 last year. USDA goal is 2,170 vs 2,261. June I US soybean stocks were in line with trade est and 971 mil bu vs 769 last year. USDA est US 2021/22 end stocks at 205 vs 257 ly. The first 6 months 0f 2022 SN dropped from 17.84 to 15.82 then rallied to 16.54. BON dropped from 87 to 65. SMN dopped from 484 to 395 then rallied to 478.
CORN
Corn futures ended lower on word that Turkey President has arranged a phone call between Putin and Zelensky to talk about freeing up 20 boats of Ukraine grain to be exported. In the past, Russian demands to have sanction lifted to allow Ukraine exports had limited any positive talks. Ukraine is also unwilling to demine ports in fear of Russia amphibious attack. Russia is also increase attacks on the Odesa port. Corn futures are also following most commodities lower on inflation and recession concern would lower food demand. It is hard to justify the steep slide in prices but bull fundamentals are taking a back seat to concerns that inflation and a recession would lower the demand for food. US soybean export commit is near 2,208 mil bu vs 2,272 last year. USDA goal is 2,378 vs 2,7753. June I US corn stocks were in line with trade est and 4,346 mil bu vs 4,111 last year. USDA est US 2021/22 end stocks at 1,485 vs 1,235 ly. USDA est US 2022 corn crop at 14,460 vs 15,115 ly. Last weeks crop rating dropped last week due to dryness in east Midwest. Some feel Mondays crop rating could drop before next weeks rain. Some look for a slight drop in weekly ethanol production due to drop in US gas use. The first 6 months of 2022 CN went from 8.24 to 7.20 to 7.54.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended lower. Wheat futures were lower on word that Turkey President has arranged a phone call between Putin and Zelensky to talk about freeing up 20 boats of Ukraine grain to be exported. In the past, Russian demands to have sanctions lifted to allow Ukraine exports had limited any positive talks. Ukraine is also unwilling to demine ports in fear of Russia amphibious attack. Russia is also increase attacks on the Odesa port. This past week, 7 mt of Ukraine grain was shipped. Some feel this grain was stolen and shipped in a Russian vessel with no buyers. Poland also said it will not be able to ship 20 mmt of Ukraine grain. Wheat futures are also following most commodities lower on inflation and recession concern would lower food demand. US wheat export commit is near 212 mil bu vs 235 last year. USDA goal is 775 vs 805.. June I US wheat stocks were in line with trade est and 659 mil bu vs 845 last year. USDA est US 2022/23 end stocks at 627. USDA est US 2022 wheat crop at 1,737 vs 1,646 ly. Some feel Mondays US spring wheat crop rating could drop due to improving weather. EU has turned drier. SW Russia and Ukraine are dry.
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