Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans ended lower. Soymeal ended higher. USDA increased US 2021/22 soybean exports 30 mil bu and dropped the carryout to 205. USDA estimates US 2021/22 soybean exports at 2,170 vs 2,261 ly. US 2021/22 crush is 2,215 vs 2,141 ly. USDA dropped US 2021/22 soyoil carryout 25 mil lbs due to higher exports. US 2021/22 soyoil exports are 1,800 vs 1,723 ly. Biofuel is est at 10,700 vs 8,850 ly. US 2022/23 biofuel use is est near 12,000. USDA est total US 2021/22 soymeal use near 52,300 tst vs 51,348 ly. US 2022/23 soymeal use is est near 53,400. USDA est World soybean end stocks 86.15 mmt vs 85.24 due higher Argentina stocks. There was talk that Argentina crushers may be running low on diesel. USDA also raised World 2022/23 stocks to 100.4 mmt vs 99.6 previous. SN ended near 17.45. Warm and dry US weather could push SN over 18.00.
CORN
Corn futures ended mixed. CN ended near 7.73. Session high was 7.81. CZ ended near 7.20. USDA lowered US 2021/22 corn exports 50 mil bu and increased carryout to 1,485. USDA left US 2022/23 crop and demand unch but increased carryout to 1,400. USDA est US 2021/22 corn exports at 2,450 vs 2,753 ly. Most est exports at 2,700. USDA est feed use at 5,625 cs 5,597 ly. USDA est ethanol use at 5,375 vs 5,033 ly. USDA est US 2022 corn crop at 14,460 with a yield of 177.0 vs 15,115 ly. USDA est US 2022/23 exports at 2,400, feed 5,350 and ethanol at 5,375. USDA est World corn end stocks 310.9 mmt vs 309.4 due higher US stocks. USDA also raised World 2022/23 stocks to 310.4 mmt vs 305.1 previous and due to higher Ukraine stocks. USDA still has Ukraine 2022/23 corn exports at 9.0 mmt vs 23.0 this year and Brazil+ Arg 2021/22 corn exports at 83.3 mmt vs 61.9 ly. Brazil+Arg 2022/23 corn exports are est at 88.0. Some feel final South America corn supply could be 8-12 mmt below USDA estimate. There was talk that managed funds liquidated longs in the grains due to steep losses in equities and commodities. Key now is US summer weather. Next weeks US Midwest could be warm and dry. USDA rated US 2022 corn crop 73 pct G/E vs 72 ly. US domestic cash corn basis remains high. Some feel this could suggest 2021 crop may be overstated.
WHEAT
WN ended near 10.70. Session high has been 10.81. KWN is ended near 11.64. Session high has been 11.67. MWN ended near 12.21. Session high has been 12.32. US stocks ended sharply lower. US Dollar was sharply higher. Crude was lower. Many hedge fund managers liquidated longs in grains due to steep losses in equites and commodities. USDA increased US 2022/23 wheat carryout 8 mil bu to 619 due to higher US crop. USDA est US 2022/23 wheat exports at 775 mil vs 805 ly. USDA est final US 2021/22 wheat carryout near 655 vs 845 ly. HRW 361 VS 428, SRW 107 vs 85 and HRS 112 VS 235 ly. USDA also lowered World 2022/23 wheat stocks to 266.8 mmt vs 267.0 previous due to lower Bangladesh and N Africa stocks. USDA est EU 2022/23 exports near 36.0 mmt vs 29.5 ly, Russia 40.0 vs 33.0, Ukraine 10.0 vs 19.0, Canada 24.0 vs 15.5, Australia 24.0 vs 27.5. USDA est N Africa imports at 29.2 vs 27.3, Middle East 23.3 vs 23,0 and SE Asia 26.0 vs 26.0.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
