Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans ended lower. SN traded over the 20 DMA early but ended back below. Some linked lower trade to steep selloff in Crude. Some link the selloff is Crude do to concern about lower demand especially in US and Asia. There was also talk that Biden will visit Saudi Arabia and ask them to increase production. Biden is also talking about restricting US Crude oil exports to try to bring US gas down from record highs. High fuel and food prices could also slow demand. World Oct-May soybean and soymeal exports in SBME is near 116.6 mmt vs 115.9 ly. Drop in US soybean exports is offset by Higher Brazil soymeal exports. May World exports were 15.6 mmt vs 18.1 ly. USDA est World Oct-Sep soybean and soymeal trade near 173.4 mmt vs 175.4 ly. There was talk about US soybean exports could increase 50 mil bu vs USDA June guess. Soyoil continues to fall on concern over lower Asian demand and higher Indonesia palmoil exports.
CORN
Corn futures ended lower. Concern about US 30 and 60 day weather helped CN test 8.00. The fact Managed funds are liquidating longs in Crude oil futures is offering resistance to corn. Strong US domestic basis offers support to futures. Uncertainty over US, EU and Black Sea summer weather offers support. Limited Black Sea/Ukraine corn exports also could increase demand for US corn. Interfax again reported that Russia Putin reported that Russia will try to open a grain export corridor for Ukraine food exports. There has been increasing pressure on Russia to open a corridor. In the past, Russia wanted lifting of sanctions before opening exports. This week Russian bombing damaged Ukraine 2nd largest grain export port. Fact Russia is increasing attacks on Ukraine may reduce any movement to reduce sanctions. After the close, EU weather model came out warmer and drier. This week, NOAA 30 and 90 day US Midwest, plains, delta and SE forecast was warm and dry. Weekly US corn crop ratings slipped a little this week especially in far west states. IA and east Midwest ratings are still above trend. Steep losses in Crude weighed on soyoil and wheat prices. This may have offered resistance to corn futures. Talk of lower US gas demand, US asking Saudi Arabia to increase oil production and Biden may consider banning US Crude exports weighed on Crude futures.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended down sharply. WU and KWU are now below Thursdays low. Concern about demand as disposable household income is dropping due to higher food and fuel prices and fact wages are not keeping up offers resistance. Should be good weekend for US HRW harvest. Some there is enough storage to absorb the harvest. Some also feel US SRW export prices may be low enough to increase export demand. Fact US and Canada prairie HRS crop weather may be improving also offers resistance. Interfax again reported that Russia/Putin reported that Russia will try to open a grain export corridor for Ukraine food exports. There has been increasing pressure on Russia to open a corridor. In the past, Russia wanted lifting of sanctions before opening exports. This week, Russian bombing damaged Ukraine 2nd largest grain export port. Fact Russia is increasing attacks on Ukraine may reduce any movement to reduce sanctions.
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