Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans ended higher. July soybeans jumped back over 17.00 on continue fund liquidation of long corn and short soybean spread position. Favorable US Midwest 30 day weather outlook may have triggered the liquidation of the spread. USDA announced new US soybean sales to Pakistan. That triggered some new buying, Weekly US old crop soybean export sales are est at 100-400 mt vs 276 last week and 100-600 mt new crop vs 443 last week. US soybeans are competitive to buyers starting August 1. China announced that will sell 500 mt soybeans from reserve June 10. Argentina soybean harvest is done. Indonesia granted 160 palmoil export permits to 18 companies for 180 mt palmoil. SN continues to find support near the 20 and 50 DMA near 16.60-16.66. Talk of US increasing 2021 biofuel mandates helped soyoil futures rally back over 81.
CORN
Corn futures closed mixed. Trade reports that after the March USDA acreage report Managed funds bought a large amount of long 2 July corn and short 1 July soybean spread positions. Improving US Midwest weather started some to exit those positions last week. Weekly US corn export sales are estimated near 125-400 mt old crop versus 151 last week and 100-300 mt new crop versus 58 last week. Trade is still looking for increase demand for US exports given lower South America supplies and reduced Ukraine exports. Trade is on edge for June 10 meeting in which Turkey will ask Russia to open Ukraine exports. Weekly US ethanol production was up 5 pct vs last week and 3 pct last year. Stocks were down 3 pct from last week but up 17 pct from last year. Margins have turned negative. July corn had an inside day. July corn is supported by the 100 DMA near 7.14 with resistance near the 20 DMA and 50 DMA near 7.76 and 7.72. Trade still trying to balance improved US Midwest 30 day weather and talk of increase Ukraine exports versus talk of higher demand for US corn and forecast of near record Q4 exports.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended higher. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at -50-100 mt vs -2 last week and new crop 200-350 mt vs 246 last week. Current World wheat prices are near record high versus WN down 257 from recent highs. Russia has sent its ally Syria an estimated 100,000 tonnes of wheat taken from Ukraine since invading the country. India has allowed wheat shipments of 469 mt since banning most exports last month, but at least 1.7 million tonnes is lying at ports and could be damaged by monsoon rains. Australia could see a third year of near record wheat production in 2022 as good weather boosts planting across its grain belt. Russia’s Defense Ministry said vessels can exit Ukraine ports but Ukraine is responsible for de-mining the ports. Following the $3 billion financing obtained last week form the ITFC, Egypt will get $600 million from the EU and World Bank to finance storage improvement for domestic wheat purchases.
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