Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybean, soymeal and soyoil futures ended lower. 2 week US Midwest forecast calls for below normal rains but normal temps. One forecaster suggested normal US Midwest July rains which has weighed on grain futures. Continued slow US weekly soybean exports is also weighing on futures. Cash US soybean values remain strong and over delivery prices. Inflation concerns and higher US interest rates could slow global food and fuel demand. Weekly US soybean exports were 15.7 mil bu vs 7.5 last year. Season to date exports are 1,870 vs 2,201 ly or down 15 pct. USDA goal is 2,170 vs 2,261 ly or down 5 pct. Last week USDA rated the US soybean crop 70 pct G/E. Some could see a slight decline. June 30 USDA will est US soybean acres and June 1 stocks. Analyst estimate US soybean acres up .5 from USDA March est of 91.0. Stocks could be near 970 mil bu vs 769 last year.
CORN
Corn futures ended lower. 2 week US Midwest forecast call for below normal rains but normal temps. One forecast suggested normal US Midwest July rains which has weighed on grain futures. Continued slow US weekly corn exports versus expectations is also weighing on futures. Cash corn values remain strong and over delivery prices. US corn feeders, ethanol and export buyers continue to compete for declining stocks with US farmer a reluctant seller. Most US producers see a good 2022 crop in the field but recent hot and dry weather keeps their price outlook bullish. US farmers have also sold more 2022 crop to date then normal at lower prices. Inflation concerns and higher US interest rates Could slow demand. Weekly US corn exports were 46.6 mil bu vs 69.9 last year. Season to date exports are 1,817 vs 2,103 ly or down 14 pct. USDA goal is 2,450 vs 2,753 ly or down 11 pct. Last week USDA rated the US corn crop 72 pct G/E. Some could see a slight decline. June 30 USDA will est US corn acres and June 1 stocks. Analyst estimate US corn acres either down 1.0 or up 1.0 from USDA March est but still below last year. Stocks could be near 4,320 mil bu vs 4,111 last year. Key to spreads and basis is actual stocks number and pct on and off farm.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended lower. Matif wheat fell to its lowest close since April, following the US due to more harvest pressure from the long weekend, even though Kansas yields were disappointing. A cooler central US Midwest forecast weighed on corn and beans which sent additional spillover selling into Europe. The northern half of France is seeing welcome rains, private Russian crop estimates continue to rise, and there were yet more newswire articles quoting unnamed officials projecting 30-35 mmt of grain to be shipped from Ukraine in the next 6-8 months, once the export corridors are in place. Reports suggest this might be achieved at meetings in Russia and Turkey over the next 10 days. Weekly US wheat exports were 12.1 mil bu vs 20.3 last year. Season to date exports are 35 vs 45 ly. USDA goal is 775 vs 805 ly. Last week USDA rated the US spring wheat crop 54 pct G/E and US winter wheat harvest at 10 pct done. Some could see harvest closer to 33 pct. June 30 USDA will est US wheat acres and June 1 stocks. Analyst estimate US wheat acres either down 1.0 mil from USDA March est and near last year. Stocks could be near 640 mil bu vs 845 last year.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
