Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures ended higher. Some long term grain analyst are seeing low volume higher trade is nearby soybeans, soymeal and soyoil. US weather suggest normal to above temps with rainfall near normal. Soybeans are supported by hope that China needs soybeans and will soon increase buying of US soybeans. Weekly US soybean exports were 17 mil bu vs 4 ly. Season to date exports are 1,883 vs 2,107 ly (-224). USDA goal is 2,170 vs 2,261 ly (-91). Trade expected US soybean crop to be rated 68 pct G/E vs 68 lw and above last year. Currently, USDA est the US 2022 crop yield near 51.5 vs 51.4 ly. This week USDA will update US 2022 soybean acres. Trade est acres near 90.4 vs USDA March 91.0 and 87.2 ly. Range of guesses are 88.7-92.3.
CORN
Some long term grain analyst are seeing low volume lower trade in corn. US weather suggest normal to above temps with rainfall near normal. Corn prices are also pressured by concern inflation will reduce US and global food demand. There is also talk of increase US farmer selling corn with crop conditions mostly favorable. Weekly US corn exports were 49 mil bu vs 41 ly. Season to date exports are 1,866 vs 2,245 ly (-379). USDA est US corn exports near 2,450 mil bu vs 2,753 ly (-303). Trade expects US corn crop to be rated 69 pct G/E vs 70 lw. Currently USDA est US 2022 corn yield near 177.0 vs 177.0 ly. This week USDA will update US 2022 corn acres. Trade est acres near 89.8 vs USDA March 89.5 and 93.3 ly. Range of guesses are 88.4-91.0. Ukraine war continues which could delay Ukraine food exports and increase Ukraine crop storage. Brazil 2nd corn crop harvest advances and offers resistance to World corn prices. Trade watching G7 meeting. Some feel G7 may suggest lowering World ethanol mandates.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended lower. Some long term grain analyst are seeing low volume lower trade in wheat. US weather suggest normal to above temps with rainfall near normal. This could help advance US HRW harvest and improve US and Canada HRW crop conditions. Wheat prices are also pressured by concern inflation will reduce food demand. Weekly US wheat exports were 13 mil bu vs 10 ly. Season to date exports are 49 vs 56 ly. Trade expected US winter crop to be rated 31 pct G/E vs 30 lw and harvest at 40 pct. SW crop rated 60 pct G/E vs 59 lw. USDA est US 2022 wheat crop at 1,737 mil bu vs 1,646 ly. This suggest a US 2022/23 wheat carryout near 627 mil bu. Trade est US June 1 wheat stocks near 655 mil bu vs 845 ly.
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