Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
USDA report, month end, quarter end, July first notice and Weekly US export sales tomorrow. Buckle up. Soybean futures ended higher. SN was near 16.74, SMN near 463.2 and BON near 72.60. Most feel USDA estimate of US soybeans will be down from USDA March guess. Nearby soybean and soymeal continue to firm on higher US domestic basis levels and hope China will soon buy US soybeans. Wide range in trade guess for US June 1 stocks suggest actual USDA number could suggest a volatile quick reaction to USDA actual number. Over the last 17 years, USDA has been above the trade soybean estimate 10 times and below 7. Weekly soybean old crop sales are est at -100-300 mt vs 29 last week with new crop 100-500 mt vs 265 last week.
CORN
Corn futures ended mixed. CN was near 7.70. CU ended near 6.64. CZ was near 6.53. There is expected to be no deliveries on the July. Some recommend farmers to clean out old crop corn bins with C IL corn price near 8.20. Open interest continues to drop in July corn before first notice. Firm US cash basis suggest USDA June 1 stocks could be below trade average. Managed funds are positioning themselves for tomorrow’s USDA report. Most feel USDA could increase US corn acres from March. Over the last 17 years, USDA June 1 corn stocks numbers has been higher than trade guess 7 times and lower 10. Along with the USDA report, USDA will also report weekly US export sales. Sales should still be below pace to push futures higher. Weekly corn old crop sales are est at 200-700 mt vs 672 last week and new crop 100-500 mt vs 358 last week. Another July 4 holiday weekend ahead. Short term US Midwest maps have rain in north plains. Midwest could see net drying and warmer temps next week. 2-5 week weather maps hint of normal Midwest rains and normal to above temps. EU corn crop late with pockets of dry areas. Interior prices better to farmers than exports. Higher drying fuel cost could delay harvest even more.
WHEAT
Wheat prices ended lower. Managed funds are positioning themselves for tomorrow’s USDA report. Some wheat selling is noted after there were no US wheat offers for the Egyptian tender. French wheat is the lowest. There was talk that lack of US gulf export capacity may have limited US wheat offers to Egypt. Wire services finally had a friendly wheat report suggest dry weather will reduce Argentina wheat supplies. There was also talk that India may become a net importer of wheat. Over the last 17 years, USDA has been above the trade wheat June 1 stocks est 10 times and below 7. Along with the USDA report, USDA will also report weekly US export sales. Sales should still be below pace to push futures higher. Weekly wheat sales are est at 200-600 mt vs 477 last week. MWU continues to slide lower on better US weather and lack of new export demand. Wheat futures still struggling with headlines of higher Russia wheat exports and better EU and US and Canada crop weather. Last year, EU and US wheat futures made a seasonal bottom the first week in July. Wheat futures remain oversold.
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