Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybean ended higher but off session highs. SN ended near 17.40 after testing 17.58. Soyoil gained on soymeal. Trade estimates weekly US old crop soybean export sales near 100-500 mt vs 111 last week and new crop 200-700 mt vs 284 last week. Talk of increase demand for US soybean exports helped SN trade over 17.50. There is also concern that final US soybean acres could drop due to wet weather delaying north cornbelt states. 2nd week US Midwest forecast calls for warmer and drier weather. One week would be good for crops. 2 months would be bad for crops. Trade est World 2021/22 soybean exports near 152.4 mmt vs 161.3 last year. US 59.6 vs 61.6, Brazil 79.5 vs 81.0. China 91.5 vs 96.2. 2022/23 World trade is est at 164.6 with US 59.8 and Brazil 87.8. 17.50 SN futures appears not to be rationing demand. CONAB est Brazil soybean crop at 124.2 mmt vs 123.8 previous and USDA 125.0. Some are closer to 122.
CORN
Corn futures ended higher. CN tested 7.74 and ended near 7.64. Combination of higher domestic basis and talk of higher demand for US export helped rally futures to near key resistance. There was talk that C TX corn basis is near +180 and Sep US gulf elevations are near +70. Only concern about higher export demand is will truck, rail logistics be good enough to timely satisfy demand. Trade estimates weekly US old crop corn export sales near 125-500 mt vs 185 last week and new crop 50-800 mt vs 48 last week. Talk of increase demand for US corn exports helped CN trade over 7.70. There is also concern that final US corn acres could drop due to wet weather delaying north corn belt states. 2nd week US Midwest forecast calls for warmer and drier weather. One week would be good for crops. 2 months would be bad for crops. Tightening US/World supply suggest US corn yield needs to be at least 177 or prices may need to rally to ration demand. Russia and Turkey meeting failed to open Ukraine exports. Trade est World 2021/22 corn exports near 174.0 mmt vs 173.8 last year. US 66.1 vs 69.8, Brazil 28.6 vs 30.9, Argentina 37.5 vs 32.5 ly and Ukraine 24.7 vs 23.7 ly. 2022/23 World trade is est at 177.2 with US 60.9, Brazil 39.2, Argentina 36.9 and Ukraine 20.0. CN futures appears not to be rationing demand. CONAB est Brazil corn crop at 115.2 mmt vs 116.1 previous and USDA 116.0. Some are closer to 107. Some est Argentina corn crop closer to 49.0 vs USDA 52.0.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended higher. Word that Russia and Turkey meeting failed to come up with a plan to open Ukraine exports offered support. Rains in US HRW area is beginning to raise concern about US HRW crop quality. Wet weather could also lower US and Canada spring wheat acres and supply. Some feel USDA is estimating US, EU and Canada crop too high and global demand too low. US SRW prices are a discount to buyers but HRW are still a premium esp to Russia. US April wheat census exports were higher than expected and suggest USDA 2022/23 estimate of US wheat export may be low. Trade est US wheat export sales near 250-500 mt vs 363 last week. Trade est World 2022/23 wheat exports near 174.7 mmt vs 171.9 last year. US 22.0 vs 21.6, EU 34.4 vs 30.6,, Canada 22.9 vs 15.1 ly, Australia 15.4 vs 17.4 ly, Russia 36.1 vs 31.5 ly and Ukraine 13.6 vs 19.4. WN ended near 10.74 with a high near10.89. KWN ended near 11.56 with a high near 11.68. MWN ended near 12.32 with a high near 12.43. KWN range is 11.00-12.00. KWN futures appears not to be reflecting tight global supplies and rationing demand.
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