Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
May soybean futures ended near 16.90. May soyoil ended near 76.20. May soymeal futures ended near 454. May board soybean crush margin is near 149. USDA Jan soybean crush is estimated near 193.7 mil bu vs 198.2 in Dec and 196.5 ly. Some now estimate Brazil soybean crop closer to 121 mmt vs USDA 134.0. 44 pct of the crop is harvested vs 25 last year. There is talk that China has returned to US soybean old crop market and are buying US March through April soybeans. This may be due to delays in loading Brazil vessels due to poor logistics. USDA estimates US 2021/22 soybean exports near 2,050 mil bu vs 2,261 ly. Since November USDA has dropped South America soybean crop 20 mmt or 725 mil bu but increased US exports only 10 mil bu. Some analyst could see exports closer to 2,160 which would suggest a carryout closer to 215 than USDA 325.
CORN
May corn futures ended up the daily limit and near 7.25. Synthetic markets were trading near 7.29 on the close. Last week CK tested 7.16. US farmers were active sellers of cash corn especially new crop last week. New selling was limited today. Some warn that corn futures are getting overbought and vulnerable for wild price swings. Some would not rule out limit down moves if funds want to take profits. Russia continues to invade Ukraine. Ukraine continues to fight. Large Russia military force is heading for Ukraine capital. Russia and Ukraine grain export ports are closed. Some open Black Sea grain sales are being washed out. There is also talk of some Ukraine corn sales being switched to US. Market becoming concerned that a prolong Ukraine War could delay plantings of their 2022 corn and barley crops. Destruction of rail and bridges could also limit grain to ports once the War is over. There is talk that non China corn shorts may be looking to buy 200-300 mil bu US corn. China may be waiting until they need the corn. Some now estimate 64 pct of the Brazil 2nd corn crop is planted vs 39 last year. Central Brazil forecast is warm and dry. Some estimates of the corn crop is now closer to 106 mmt vs USDA 114. USDA estimates US 2021/22 corn exports near 2,425 mil bu vs 2,753 ly. Some analyst could see exports closer to 2,650 which would suggest a carryout closer to 1,220 than USDA 1,540.
WHEAT
Chicago and KC May wheat futures ended up the daily limit. WK made new highs for the move and near 9.84. KWK also made new highs for the move and near 10.03. MWK ended near 10.53. Russia continues to invade Ukraine. Ukraine continues to fight. Russia and Ukraine grain export ports are closed. Russia is the Worlds largest wheat exporter. Market becoming concerned that a prolong Ukraine War could delay plantings of their 2022 spring wheat crop. Destruction of rail and bridges could also limit grain to ports. Ukraine and Russia winter wheat harvest could start by the end of March. The world’s 3 biggest container lines have suspended shipments to and from Russia, and the EU is considering following the UK lead by banning all Russian ships from entering EU ports.
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