Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans, soyoil and soymeal traded sharply lower. US Dollar was higher. Crude was sharply lower. SK had a range of 13.90-14.19 and is near the 50-day moving average. CBOT soybean were pressured on the decline in Dalian futures, crude oil and in world vegetable oil prices. This linked to increase in Brazil soybean exports and talk of record March Argentine crush. NOAA April forecast for above temps and below normal rain could suggest early planting offered resistance. Weekly US soybean sales were near 7 mil bu. Total commit is near 2,228 mil bu vs USDA goal of 2,250. China commit is near 35.9 mmt with 2.0 in unknown. Some feel soybean futures have lost their upside momentum given better South America weather and rains across US Midwest that should add to soil moisture reserves for 2021 crop.
CORN
Corn futures traded sharply lower. CBOT corn was pressured on the decline in Dalian futures and crude oil.CK range was 5.45-5.58. CK tested 20 day moving average. NOAA April weather forecast for above normal temps and below normal rain contributed to ideas of early corn planting. USDA did announce 696 mt corn sold to China. This brings China commit to a record large 22.4 mmt. The trade though now believes this round of Chinese buying has been completed. NOAA April-June weather forecasts calls for above normal temps for the US Cornbelt. This could also suggest early and timely corn planting. Weekly US corn sales were near 39 mil bu. Total commit is near 2,382 mil bu vs USDA goal of 2,600. China commit is near 19.3 mmt with 4.6 in unknown. Most feel USDA will need to increase US exports, lower US carryout and increase China corn imports on their April report. Combination of better US and South America weather with managed funds long may have contributed to today’s selling. Still most feel that USDA March 31 acreage and stocks report is key to prices and final US summer weather and impact of final yields should determine ultimate price direction.
WHEAT
Wheat futures traded sharply lower. WK traded back to near the 100-day moving average support level. Nearby Chicago wheat futures have not traded below that levels since December. Higher US Dollar and lower energy prices may be an indication of delayed increase in food and fuel demand especially in EU. US Fed comments could shift money back into equities and bonds. Weekly US wheat sales were near 14 mil bu. Total commit is near 900 mil bu vs USDA goal of 985. Rains in US south plains and slow demand for US export is offering resistance to futures. Uncertainty over Russia 2021 crop size and export policy offers support. Last year, WK lost the inverse to WN going into first notice. Talk of increase global wheat feeding could offer support. NOAA US 30-day outlook calls for above normal temps and below normal rains in west and SW. 90 day calls for above normal temps and below normal rains in south US. This could stress US HRW and HRS crops.
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