Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans were mixed. There was concern about China feed demand and US soybean and soymeal exports could trend lower as South America harvest advances. Fact that most of the US Midwest is getting spring rains is helping soil reserves for spring crops may also be weighing on prices. Weekly US soybean exports were near 18 mil bu vs 20 last week and 21 last year. Season to date exports are near 1,971 mil bu vs 1,142 last year. USDA goal is 2,250 versus 1,682 last year. Informa est US 2021 soybean acres near 89.7 million versus 83.0 last year. Most est are near 90.0. Informa est US 2021 soybean crop near 4,534 mil bu vs 4,135 ly. Informa also estimated double crop soybean acres are estimated near 4.8 mil versus 3.8 ly. Prevent plant acres are estimated near 2.9 versus 9.3 last year. All crops US 2021 acres are estimated near 319.9 million versus 307.7 last year.
CORN
Corn futures traded lower. Some long liquidation due to month end and quarter end weighed on prices. Rains are across the Midwest is also charging soil reserves and could support higher 2021 crops. Lack of new US corn sales to China may have weighed on corn prices. Some feel that China has now booked 33-35 mmt of corn for imports. They have sold 23 mmt of wheat from reserves for feeding. They will no longer produce 30 mmt of feed from food waste. If hog numbers increase, some feel China could have a shortfall of 50 mmt of feed grains. Most feel China will continue to buy US corn. This could draw down US 2021/22 corn carryout below 1,000 mil bu. Weekly US corn exports were near 77 mil bu vs 89 last week and 34 last year. Season to date exports are near 1,259 mil bu vs 645 last year. USDA goal is 2,600 versus 1,778 last year. Informa est US 2021 corn acres near 94.3 million versus 90.8 last year. Most est are near 93.0. Sorghum acres were est near 7.3 mil versus 5.9 last year. Informa est US 2021 corn crop near 15,587 mil bu vs 14,182 ly. Informa also estimated CRP acres near 20.7 versus 21.9 last year. Prevent plant acres are estimated near 2.9 versus 9.3 last year. All crops US 2021 acres are estimated near 319.9 million versus 307.7 last year.
WHEAT
Wheat futures traded mixed. Nearby Chicago traded higher. Some link this to liquidation of long corn short wheat spread positions. KC wheat continued to trade lower as persistent rains have improved the outlook for US 2021 HRW crop. Weekly US wheat exports were near 24 mil bu vs 26 last week and 13 last year. Season to date exports are near 733 mil bu vs 738 last year. USDA goal is 985 versus 965 last year. Informa est US 2021 all wheat acres near 45.3 million versus 44.3 last year. Most est are near 45.0 Informa est US 2021 all wheat crop near 1,902 mil bu vs 1,826 ly. Informa also estimated CRP acres near 20.7 versus 21.9 last year. Prevent plant acres are estimated near 2.9 versus 9.3 last year. All crops US 2021 acres are estimated near 319.9 million versus 307.7 last year. US north plains remain dry with temps above normal. This patter could continue through much of April.
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