Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans, soymeal, soyoil, traded higher but finished off session highs. US stocks were lower. US Dollar was lower. Crude was sharply lower on demand concerns. Talk of tight US 2020/21 supplies helped futures trade higher. Higher soyoil prices also supported soybean futures. Soyoil continues to find support and are making new highs on higher demand for palmoil and tight supplies of competing vegoils. China soyoil futures were sharply higher. Some feel talk that US may use soyoil as a biodiesel for jet fuel is triggering the price rally. Higher soyoil prices is supporting soybean futures. Tight US supplies is helping cash basis and has SK back testing the higher end of the trading range. This week, one group estimated US 2021 soybean planted acres near 94.3 versus 90.8. Their crop is 4,534 mil bu vs 4,135 last year. SK found support near the 20 day moving average near 14.14. Resistance continues near 14.50. Some feel tight US supplies could eventually push SK over 15.00.
Monthly nearby soybean futures chart
CORN
Corn futures traded higher but closed off session highs. Talk that this week’s US export sales could be above 3 mmt offered support. Increase domestic demand and lack of farmer selling has also supported prices near key support. Talk of additional China buying US corn and a drier Brazil weather pattern could also be supportive. US farmer will soon be busy planting the 2021 corn crop. LA corn planting is 52 pct done. TX is 38 pct. Midwest rains is helping add to soil reserves. This week, one group estimated US 2021 corn planted acres near 94.3 versus 90.8. Their crop is 15,587 mil bu vs 14,182 last year. CK found support near the 20-day moving average near 5.46. Resistance continues near 5.60. Some feel tight US supplies could eventually push CK over 6.00. Weekly US ethanol production could be down slightly from last week while stocks could be up slightly. Margins have improved. Corn traded higher despite steep losses in Crude. Some link that to lower EU demand due to virus lockdowns.
Monthly nearby corn futures chart
WHEAT
Wheat futures traded higher but finished off session highs. Wheat traded higher despite concern about food and fuel demand in EU and sharply higher US Dollar. USDA estimated KS crop 45 pct G/E vs 38 last week, OK 62 vs 57, TX 29 vs 27 and CO 33 vs 25. This week, one group estimated US 2021 wheat planted acres near 45.3 versus 44.3 ly. Their crop is 1,902 mil bu vs 1,826 last year. WK traded below the 100-day moving average near 6.31, tested 6.21 then traded back to near the high of the day near 6.44. Long term, wheat futures could be supported by unknown of Russia 2021 crop and export policy. Matif wheat closed higher on a weaker €uro and further gains in the corn market. Cash premiums remain on the defensive in the absence of any fresh demand. EU crops are doing well. Black Sea was quiet and lacks buyers. Russian March shipments are below average.
Monthly nearby Chicago wheat futures chart
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