Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
March Madness continues. Grains continue to traded mostly sideways into month end. SK is near 14.00. SX is near 12.07. SMK is near 404.6. BOK is near 52.48 and down the limit again. Suez canal is causing concern about flow of goods and ocean freight. Steep drop in World vegoil demand has triggered massive long liquidation in soyoil futures. China soymeal prices are higher due to increase meal demand and increase pork production. USDA March report; trade est soybean stocks at 1,543 vs 2,255. Trade also est US 2021 soybean acres at 90.0 vs 83.1. US soybean export commit is 2,231 mil bu vs 1,313 ly. China has slowed nearby soybean import buying. Argentina soybean crop est is near 44 mmt. IGC est World 2021 soybean crop near 383 mmt vs 361 last year. SK is now below the 20 day moving average. 13.93 is 50 day moving average support. Still in a 13.50-14.50 range. Managed funds have reduced their net grain longs due to better global weather and before USDA report. Some doubt they will buy grain futures until there is a good reason either tight US supplies or weather
Weekly nearby soybean futures chart
CORN
Corn futures managed small gains. Some link todays trade to liquidation of Long soybean and short corn spread positions. There is also talk that US cash Basis is strong and reflects market outlook of a bullish USDA est of US March 1 Corn stocks. Futures inverse suggest trade may be looking for bearish USDA estimate of US 2021 corn acres. US Midwest spring weather is favorable. USDA March report; trade est corn stocks at 7,767 vs 7,952 ly. Trade also est US 2021 corn acres near 93.2 mil vs 90.8 ly. Post USDA report will turn focus to World weather. US corn export commit is 2,558 mil bu vs 1,214 ly. China commit is 913 mil bu, 161 in unknown China has slowed nearby corn import buying. Buying new crop corn. China bought 60 panamax corn cargoes from Ukraine for Oct-Nov. Argentina corn harvest 7 pct vs 14 average. Crop is rated 26 pct G/E vs 22 last week IGC est World 2021 corn crop 1,193 mmt vs 1,139 last year. CK is holding near the 20 day and 50 day moving average. Range is 5.20-5.60. Managed funds have reduced their net grain longs due to better global weather and before USDA report. Some doubt they will buy grain futures until there is a good reason either tight US supplies or weather
Weekly nearby corn futures chart
WHEAT
Wheat futures managed to bounce off the lows. Some link this to fact Managed funds are now net short wheat futures and trade is now oversold. Should be some end user buying under the market. There Is also concern that blockage of Suez canal could slow flow of goods and raise World ocean freight values. Dry US north plains and a warm start to US April could begin to dry US HRW soils. USDA March report; trade est wheat stocks at 1,278 vs 1,415 last year. Trade also est US 2021 all wheat acres at 45.0 vs 44.3 last year. Post USDA report will turn focus to World weather. World wheat prices continue to drop on lack of new export buying. IGC EST World 2021 wheat crop at 790 mmt vs 747 last year. WK is below the 20, 50 and 100 day moving average. WK has loss 80 cents since the Feb 24 high. KWK is also below the 20, 50 and 100 day moving average. WK has loss 98 cents since the Feb 24 high. Managed funds have reduced their net grain longs due to better global weather and before USDA report. Some doubt they will buy grain futures until there is a good reason mostly weather.
Weekly nearby Chicago wheat futures chart
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