Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybean managed small gains. SK closed near 14.40. Range was 14.23-14.42. Higher palmoil and China vegoil prices supported soyoil. There was talk of higher US domestic soyoil basis which supported soyoil and soybeans. Some feel USDA estimate of US 2020/21 soybean carryout near 120 is minimum pipeline. Still futures may not be high enough to slow demand. There is talk of soybean imports to help satisfy US demand. USDA left US 2020/21 soybean balance sheet unchanged. USDA raised Brazil soybean crop 1 mmt to 134.0. They dropped Argentina crop from 48.0 to 47.5. Some feel Argentina crop should be lower. USDA raised US domestic soyoil use 200 mil lbs but lowered exports 150. Some feel increase in clean air fuel for jets could increase soyoil biodiesel demand.
CORN
Corn futures traded mixed. CK was down 1 cents and near 5.45 with a range of 5.36-5.47. CZ traded up 3 cents and near 4.84. Range was 4.75-4.85. Nearby market was under some pressure after USDA failed to lower their guess of US 2020/21 corn carryout near 1,502. Most private guesses have higher demand and a carryout near 1,200. USDA may wait for more news about South America crops and exports and USDA March 31 US acreage and March 1 stocks to make changes in their balance sheet. CZ supported by need for record US 2021 planted acres and prefect spring and summer weather or prices may go higher. Either basis has to rally, spreads invert more of futures rally to move corn from storage into the pipeline. Corn demand is expected to increase once more Americans are vaccinated and economy begins to improve. USDA left Brazil corn crop at 109.0 mmt and Argentina at 47.5. Some feel Argentina crop could be lower. USDA left China corn imports at 24.0 mmt.
WHEAT
Wheat traded higher. Some short covering into today’s report offered support. Fact USDA did not lower US 2020/21 corn carryout and did lower World wheat end stocks may have supported wheat futures into the close. Wheat has been on the defensive due to slower World wheat trade and talk of better rains next week across US south plains. USDA did drop US HRW weekly crop ratings but KS crop is coming out of dormancy ad some feel conditions look better than feared. USDA left US 2020.21 wheat balance sheet also unchanged. USDA did drop white wheat end stocks 20 mil bu and raised HRW 20 mil bu. USDA dropped World wheat stocks from 304.2 mmt to 301.1 due to lower China supplies. USDA left Russia wheat exports at 39.0 mmt vs 34.4 last year.
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