Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans ended higher. Talk of higher US 2022/23 soybean demand offered support. Higher US 2022/23 soybean crush offered resistance to soymeal and soyoil. USDA estimated of US 2022 soybean yield at 51.5 and as expected. USDA estimate of US 2021/22 soybean carryout down 25 mil bu to 235 due to higher exports. USDA estimate of US 2022/23 carryout is 310. Exports 2,200 and crush 2,225. USDA estimated Brazil 2022 crop at 149.0 vs 125.0 ly and Argentina 51.0 vs 42.0. USDA estimated World 2022/23 soybean end stocks near 99.6 mmt vs 97.2 expected and 85.2 this year. USDA dropped US 2022/23 soyoil carryout to 1,706 mil lbs due to higher biofuel use. USDA raised US 2022/23 soymeal carryout to 500 tst due to higher production. USDA est 2022/23 ave US soybean farm prices near 14.40 vs 13.25 this year.
CORN
US corn futures ended higher led by the Dec. USDA estimated of US 2022 corn yield at 177.0 vs 181.0 expected. USDA estimate of US 2021/22 corn carryout was left at 1,440. USDA estimate of US 2022/23 carryout is 1,360. Exports 2,400, ethanol 5,375 and feed use 5,350. USDA estimated Brazil 2022 crop at 126.0 vs 116.0 ly, Ukraine 19.5 vs 42.1 and Argentina 55.0 vs 53.0. USDA est 2022/23 ave US corn farm prices near 6.75 vs 5.90 this year. Weekly US corn export sales were only 193 mt. Total commit is near 58.5 mmt vs 67.7 last year. USDA goal is 63.3 vs 69.9 ly. USDA estimated World 2022/23 corn trade near 182.7 mmt vs 197.7 this year. Brazil 47.0 vs 44.5. Argentina 41.0 vs 39.0. Ukraine 9.0 vs 23.0. US 61.0. CZ tested 7.55. Recent low was 7.03. Contract high is near 7.57. Lower US 2022 corn yield than expected plus a wet Midwest forecast starting this week through next week also helped rally CZ prices.
WHEAT
US wheat futures ended sharply higher. USDA estimate of US 2022 wheat crop was lower than expected. USDA estimate of US 2021/22 wheat carryout dropped 23 mil bu due to higher exports? USDA estimated US 2022 wheat crop at 1,729 mil bu vs 1,791 expected. USDA estimate of US 2022/23 carryout is 619. Exports 775 and feed use 80. USDA estimated EU 2022 crop at 136.5 vs 138.4 ly, Russia 80.0 vs 75.1, Ukraine 21.5 vs 33.0, Canada 33.0 vs 21.6, Australia 30.0 vs 36.3 and Argentina 20.0 vs 22.1 USDA est 2022/23 ave US wheat farm prices near 10.75 vs 7.70 this year. USDA estimated World 2022/23 trade near 204.8 mmt vs 199.0 this year. EU 36.0 vs 31.0, Russia 39.0 vs 33.0, Canada 24.0 vs 15.5, Ukraine 10.0 vs 19.0, Argentina 14.0 vs 15.5, India 8.5 vs 8.1 and Australia 24.0 vs 27.5.
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