Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans found support from talk of higher demand for US soybean crush and exports. Brazil will be out of the export market Aug 1 and Argentina is crushing more soybean and exporting less. USDA est US 21/22 soybean crush near 2,215 mil bu. USDA est US 2021/22 exports near 2,140 mil bu. Some feel exports could be closer to 2,200. This could drop US 2021/22 soybean carryout closer to 200 vs USDA 235. Key will be China demand and can logistics export 60 mil bu more beans. US soybean planting is 50 pct vs 73 ly. IL 62 vs 79 ly, IA 69 vs 88 and ND 7 vs 72 ly. Most est US 2022 crop near USDA 4,640. Some could see total 2022/23 US demand near 4,695 vs USDA 4,580. This could drop US 2022/23 soybean carryout closer to 200 mil bu vs USDA 310.
CORN
Corn futures ended sharply lower. Normal US 2 week weather forecast and talk of China buying Brazil corn dropped CN below 7.70 support. Lower US stock market could also be offering resistance to corn futures. Some are concerned higher inflations will slow World economies food and fuel demand. USDA est US corn feed use near 5,625. USDA est US 2021/22 ethanol use near 5,375 mil bu. USDA est US 2021/22 corn exports near 2,400 mil bu. Some feel exports could be closer to 2,700. This due to talk of lower Ukraine and Brazil exports. Today, talk that China changed quality restrictions to allow for Brazil corn imports offered resistance. Some est Brazil could ship China 10 mmt of corn. Still higher US export could drop US 2021/22 corn carryout closer to 1,300 vs USDA 1,440. Key will be final corn export demand and can logistics export 300 mil bu more corn. US corn planting is 72 pct vs 89 ly and higher than expected. IL 78 vs 89 ly, IA 86 vs 97 and ND 20 vs 81 ly. Most est US 2022 corn crop near USDA 14,460. Some could see total 2022/23 US demand near 14,900 vs USDA 14,565. This could drop US 2022/23 corn carryout closer to 1,100 mil bu vs USDA 1,380.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended sharply lower. Slow demand for US wheat exports, rains in US south plains and lower US equity market is offering resistance to wheat futures. All this offset wet condition in US north plains and east Canada prairie and dry condition in EU. Ukraine war is also slowing Black Sea wheat exports. US spring wheat planting is 49 pct vs 93 ly. ND 27 vs 93 ly. USDA rated US 2022 winter wheat crop 28 pct G/E vs 47 ly. KS 25, OK 10, MO 60 and WA 61. On May 12, USDA dropped US 2021/22 wheat carryout 23 mil bu to 655. This due to higher exports? USDA est US 2022 wheat crop near 1,729 mil bu or up 83 mil bu from last year. They est total US 2022/23 wheat demand at 1,885 or down 46. USDA est of US 2022/23 wheat carryout is 619. After the report WN rallied from 11.02 to a high near 12.84. Talk of lower global food demand and an overbought tech picture dropped WN to todays low near 11.38. Some feel Wheat futures could retest the recent highs post US harvest on lower World exporters 2022 supply versus importers demand.
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