Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybean ended lower. SN ended near 16.81. Range was 16.65-16.97. Some feel soybean futures ae oversold and near value. Talk of higher US soybean demand August forward offers support on breaks. US weekly soybean export sales are estimated near 200-800 mt old crop and 100-600 mt new. Continued concern about China Covid lockdown reducing vegoil demand and imports offered resistance to July soyoil futures. This despite talk India will allow 2 mmt duty free soyoil and sunoil imports. China feeders continue to be active buyers of soymeal.
CORN
Massive selloff in the grains continued. CBOT corn futures were pressured on reports that Russia will provide a humanitarian corridor for vessels carrying food to leave Ukraine in return for the lifting of some sanctions. It is unclear if an agreement can be reached allowing this to occur. Forecasts for favorable US weather over the majority of the Corn belt (except for wetness delaying planting in the Northern Plains) added to pressure. The corn market found good underlying support on the rebound in weekly US ethanol production. EIA weekly ethanol production increased from last week’s 991,000 barrels per day to 1.014 million barrels per day, with ethanol stocks declining from 23.8 mil barrels to 23.7 mil barrels, the lowest level since mid-January. The ethanol production pace is in line with the level needed to reach USDA’s corn grind estimate of 5375 mil bu. Weekly US corn export sales are estimated near 150-500 mt old crop and 200-800 mt new. CN ended near 7.72 with a range of 7.55- 7.73. Some encouraged end users to add coverage near session lows. Some still feel CN should be a 7.70-8.20 range. Hard to trade above 8.20 unless there is a weather problem. Equally hard to trade much below 7.70 if Ukraine exports drop and Brazil corn supply is down.
WHEAT
Wheat is still wheat. Massive selloff in the grains continued. CBOT wheat was pressured on reports that Russia will provide a humanitarian corridor for vessels carrying food to leave Ukraine in return for the lifting of some sanctions. It is unclear if an agreement can be reached allowing this to occur. Recent precipitation has relieved stress over much of the US HRW area may have added to today’s pressure. Recent precipitation has relieved stress over much of the US HRW area. More rain forecasted for US north plains and east Canada prairies helped MWN ended higher. Weekly US wheat export sales are estimated near 50-500 mt. US wheat export prices remain uncompetitive to end users. International Islamic Trade Finance Corp increased from 3 bil dollars to 6 bil dollars to help Egypt buy wheat. India continues policy of satisfying domestic wheat requirement before selling export wheat.
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