Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures ended sharply lower. Some feel that Managed funds may have liquidated long position at the end of the month. There remains uncertainty over Ukraine sunoil exports, China commodity demand and a mostly favorable US 2 week weather forecast. Soybean rallied last week over 17.00 on talk that US soybean and crush demand could be record high. Weekly US soybean exports were 378 mt. Total exports are near 49.4 mmt vs 56.6 ly USDA goal is 58.2 vs 61.5 ly. Trade est US soybean plantings near 67 vs 50 last week. Some will look at today’s planting pace especially in North plains to see if any acres may not get planted. Some est US 2022 soybean acres near 90.5 and yield near 51.5. That could produce a crop near 4,590 mil bu. Total demand could be near 4,600. This could suggest a carryout near 200 mil bu vs USDA 310.
CORN
Massive risk off day. Some feel sharp losses in corn may be due to talk EU would like Russia to open a corridor for Ukraine corn exports. No word from Russia yet but previous attempts and Russia has said that they would if sanctions are lifted. Ukraine President is not expected to pull out mines in fear of a Russian amphibious attack. Russia shows no sign of a ceasefire. Some feel managed funds are liquidating long positions at month end. Also over the last 10 days funds have liquidated long corn calls and a large long corn and short soybean position on talk US corn crop is now growing under better condition. Weekly US corn exports were 1,390 mt. Total exports are near 42.2 mmt vs 51.1 ly USDA goal is 63.5 vs 69.9 ly. Trade est US corn plantings near 85 vs 72 last week. Some est US 2022 corn acres near 90.0 and yield near 178.0. That could produce a crop near 14,630 mil bu. Total demand could be near 15,000. This could suggest a carryout near 1,100 mil bu vs USDA 1,360.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended sharply lower. WN ended near 10.88 with a range of 10.87-11.57. KWN ended near 11.65 with a range of 11.65-12.37. MWN ended near 12.52 with a range of 12,45 to 13.10. Massive risk off day. Some feel sharp losses in wheat may be due to talk EU would like Russia to open a corridor for Ukraine wheat exports. No word from Russia yet but previous attempts and Russia has said that they would if sanctions are lifted. Ukraine President is not expected to pull out mines in fear of a Russian amphibious attack. Russia shows no sign of a ceasefire. Some feel managed funds are liquidating long positions at month end. Weekly US wheat exports were 344 mt. Total exports are near 19.9 mmt vs 25.3 ly USDA goal is 21.9 vs 27.0 ly. Trade est US spring wheat plantings near 67 vs 49 last week. Trade estimates that USDA will rate the US winter wheat crop 29 pct G/E vs 28 last week.
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