SOYBEANS
SN ended near 14.17. SX 12.68. Open interest has dropped from a high near 733,000 to 599,000. Much of the drop is Index and Managed fund liquidation as demand for US soybeans slowed. Overall daily trade volume has drop since April 23. Weekly US soybean export sales were only 10 mil bu. Total commit is 1,863 mil bu vs 2,142 last year. USDA goal is 2,105 vs 2,158 ly. Some could see final export closer to 1,960. This could increase US carryout closer to 270 mil bu vs USDA 210. Next week USDA will release first guess for US 2023/24 S/D. Key will be crop size and export number. Some could see crop near 4,575, exports near 1,975 and end stocks near 440. USDA is expected to raise Brazil crop 1 mmt to 155 and lower Argentina down 3 mmt to 34. Busy week ahead with Russia Victory day May 9, USDA May 12, Turkish election May 14, Potential end of Ukraine export deal May 18.
CORN
CN ended near 5.89. CZ 5.28. Open interest has dropped from a high near 1,367,000 to 1,227,000. Much of the drop was due to option expiration and talk of lower demand for US exports. Fact China cancelled open and unshipped corn sales also weighed on basis, spreads and futures. Overall daily trade volume has also dropped from a high on April 27. Weekly US corn export sales were a negative 12 mil bu. This due to China cancellations. Total commit is 1,501 mil bu vs 2,295 last year. USDA goal is 1,850 vs 2,471 ly. Some could see final export closer to 1,750. This could increase US carryout closer to 1,415 mil bu vs USDA 1,342. Next week USDA will release first guess for US 2023/24 S/D. Key will be crop size and export number. Some could see crop near 15,180, exports near 1,900 and end stocks near 2,370. There remains concern about Russia not extending Ukraine export corridor deal that expires March 18.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended higher. Wheat has rallied this week. WN open interest remains high near 373,000 with managed funds increasing net short and end users adding coverage. Daily volume has dropped from April 12. KWN open interest increased from 167,000 to 189,500 on crop worries. Daily trade volume has increased. MWN open interest has dropped and daily volume is also lower. Weekly US wheat export sales were near 8 mil bu. Total commit is 694 mil bu vs 713 last year. USDA goal is 775 vs 800 ly. US carryout could be closer to 615 mil bu vs USDA 598. Next week USDA will release first guess for US 2023/24 S/D. Key will be crop size. Some could see crop near 1,884, exports near 825 and end stocks near 650. US north plains look wet which could slow spring wheat plantings there. US SRW and white wheat crop are rated the highest. SRW could see rains next week. Need dry weather now. US south plains looks drier. Annual US HRW KS crop tour is May 15-18. Last week, Russia drop prices to sell Egypt.
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