Explore Special Offers & White Papers from ADMIS

Ag Market View for Nov 8.23

WHEAT

Prices jumped across all 3 classes today with Chicago and KC closing $.19 – $.22 higher, while MGEX was up $.09 – $.11.  All 3 classes traded to their highest level in 2-3 weeks.  Total volume purchased with Algeria’s recent tender is around 690k mt at $266/mt CF, likely from France or Black Sea origin.  Jordan is seeking 120k mt of optional origin milling wheat in a tender that closes Nov. 14th.  The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered their Argentine wheat production forecast .8 mmt to 13.5 mmt, well below the current USDA est. of 16.5 mmt.  Despite claims of providing free grain to needy African nations, so far Russian customs agents indicate only 25k mt of humanitarian wheat has left the Black Sea.  SovEcon forecasts Russian wheat exports will reach 3.8 – 4.2 mmt in Nov-23, down from 4.3 mmt in Nov-22 marking the 2nd consecutive month of exports down YOY.  Australia experienced their driest October in 20 years and the 5th driest since 1900, this following the driest September on record.  Precipitation Nov-23 thru Jan-24 is expected to remain below the normal due to the El Nino weather pattern.

Wheat fields

CORN

Prices rebounded closing $.05 – $.07 higher today as strong chart support is being built just under $4.70 for Dec-23.  Next resistance is the 50 day MA, currently $4.83 ¼.  Short range forecasts for Brazil remains threatening with conditions too hot/dry in the NC growing regions while heavy rains in the south pose renewed flooding concerns.  Midday forecasts suggest better prospects for rain in week 2 of the outlook for NC Brazil.  Conditions in Argentina continue to move in a more favorable direction.  No major delays anticipated for the remaining US harvest.  The USDA announced the sale of 270k mt (10.7 mil. bu.) of corn to Mexico.  The weekly EIA report on ethanol production is delayed due to system upgrades.  The plan is to issue 2 weeks of production and stock data at its normal release time and date next Wednesday.  Tomorrow’s export sales are expected to range from 25 – 50 mil. bu.  Brazil’s exports are expected to reach 8.4 mmt in Nov-23, down slightly from Oct-23 however still a record high for the month and up 53% from Nov-22. 

SOYBEANS

Today’s soybean market was a classic example of buy the rumor, sell the fact type trade.  Following today’s announced soybean sales at just over 900k mt, confirming yesterday’s rumored business, prices we not able to hold early strength closing mixed for the session.  The announced soybean sales to China/unknown were the largest daily sales this calendar year.  Soybean products also saw some reversal action with oil closing higher while meal was mixed.  Jan-24 beans traded to a new 2 month high while Dec-23 meal scored fresh contract highs before closing slightly higher and near session lows.  Next resistance for Dec meal is $472.50, the July high on the weekly chart.  Dec-23 oil held above last week’s low at 48.79 before recovering.  The USDA announced sales of 477k tons (17.5 mil. bu.) of beans to China and 433k (16 mil. bu.) to unknown, quickly confirming yesterday’s rumored sales.  Tomorrow’s export sales are expected to range from 30 – 60 mil. bu. for soybeans, 100 – 400k tons meal, and 0 – 5k tons for oil.  Brazil’s exports in Nov-23 are expected to reach 5.2 mmt, down slightly from Oct-23 however well above the 1.9 mmt from Nov-22. 

See more market commentary here.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore Special Offers & White Papers from ADMIS

Get Started