Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybean traded sharply higher after USDA dropped the US soybean crop versus expectations of a higher crop. Yields in IA, IN and OH dropped from October. Drop in crop was offset by a drop in exports. USDA estimated US soybean crop at 4,425 mil bu or down 23 mil bu from USDA October guess. USDA also estimated US 2021/22 soybean carryout near 340 mil bu vs 320 in October. Some in the market are unwilling to chase todays rally in soybeans after the surprise USDA bullish numbers. US farmers could take this chance to increase cash sales. Some feel slow US soybean export sales and early Brazil harvest could offer important resistance to soybean futures. USDA dropped China soybean imports 1 mmt to 100. USDA left Brazil crop at the record 144 mmt but did drop Argentina .5 to 49.5. USDA estimated World soybean end stocks near 103.7 mmt vs 105.5 expected and 104.5 in October. Higher carryin stocks raised US 2021/22 soyoil carryout from 1,798 mil lbs to 1,912. Higher soymeal production was offset by lower carryin.
CORN
Corn futures ended slightly higher. Fact USDA raised US 2021 corn crop but offset the increase with a higher ethanol estimate kept US 2021/22 corn carryout near 1,493 mil bu. USDA did raise US corn yield from 176.5 to 177.0. Higher yields in MN, SD, NE offset lower yields in MO, IL and IN. USDA estimated US corn crop at 15,062 mil bu or up 43 mil bu from USDA October guess. USDA did raise ethanol use 50 mil bu. Some feel this weeks US weekly ethanol production could be record high. Trade still feels USDA may be low in final ethanol demand. Key to final US carryout could be exports with trade 100 mil bu higher than USDA. USDA left Brazil corn crop at a record 118 mmt. The did drop Argentina .5 mmt to 54.5. USDA left Ukraine crop at 38 mmt and exports 31.5. USDA did increase World corn end stocks from 301.7 mmt to 304.4 due to higher China supplies. Some doubt USDA China stocks numbers. Fact China Dalian futures are near 6 month high suggest stocks could be lower than USDA guess. Some feel current crop could be lower due to rains and rare snow slowing final harvest. China corn import margins favor imports. Most feel corn futures could trend higher post US harvest and into the end of the year.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended higher. USDA November wheat numbers were in line with trade estimates. Key to prices now is World trade and if EU and Russia wheat export supplies declines. USDA estimated US 2021/22 wheat carryout near 583 mil bu vs USDA 580. USDA reduced US wheat imports 10 mil bu but dropped exports 15. USDA raised HRS end stocks 15 and dropped HRW 12. USDA estimated World wheat end stocks near 275.8 mmt vs 277.2 in October. USDA left Australia wheat crop at 31.5 and Canada at 21.0. USDA did raise Russia 2 mmt to 74.5 but dropped EU 1 mmt to 138.4. USDA did increase World wheat trade from 199.6 mmt to 203.2. USDA est EU wheat exports at 36.5 mmt vs 29.7 ly, Russia 36.0 vs 38.5 ly. Ukraine 24.0 vs 16.8 ly. Australia 23.5 vs 24.5 ly, US 23.4 vs 27.0 ly and Canada 15.0 vs 26.4 ly. WZ held trendline support near 7.62 and closed over Mondays high. Some feel WZ could test 8.25. KWZ remains above 20 day moving average near 7.71. Some feel KWZ could trade back over 8.14 high. MWZ held 10.00 support. Some feel MWZ has seen most of the 2021 rally but tight Canada supplies still offers support.
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