Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is down 1 cent and near 16.98. SX is near 15.34. SMN is near 405.4. BON is near 81.68. CN is down 6 cents and near 7.36. CZ is near 6.98. WN is down 3 cents and near 10.88. Overnight high was 11.01. KWN is down 3 cents and near 11.64. Overnight high was 11.77. MWN is down 4 cents and near 12.26. Overnight high was 12.42.
US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Gold is higher. Copper. Silver, coffee. Cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower.
Trade is deeply skeptical of Russia’s intentions in negotiations to allow Ukraine to resume food exports through the Black Sea, given the Russian military’s repeated targeting of such food supplies. There is talk that Biden may lift import tariffs against China.
US 7 day weather forecast call for normal weather. Cool temps east and warm west. Extended models show a ridge building across south central Midwest on day 10. Central Brazil is dry, North China plains are also dry. EU is turning dry with temps warming. France saw damaging crop weather.
USDA estimated US soybean plantings near 78 pct. US old crop unshipped soybean sales are near record and new crop is record high. Most doubt USDA will make big changes on June 10 Analyst est US 2021/22 soybean carryout near 218 vs USDA 235 and 2022/23 near 287 vs USDA 310. Some est Brazil soybean crop near 122 mmt vs USDA 125, Argentina 41.0 vs USDA 42. China has bought 30 soybean cargoes, Argentina nearby, US Oct/Nov and Brazil, 2023.
USDA estimated US corn plantings near 94 pct. There are 684,000 acres yet planted in ND, 546,000 in MN and 434,000 in SD. USDA rated the US 2022 corn crop 73 pct G/E. Best crops in IA, WI, IL and KY. Lowest crops are TX, CO, MN, KS and ND. Most doubt USDA will make big changes on June 10. Analyst est US 2021/22 corn carryout near 1,437 vs USDA 1,440 and 2022/23 near 1,340 vs USDA 1,360.
USDA estimated US spring wheat plantings near 82 pct. There is still 2.0 mil spring wheat acres yet to be planted. USDA estimated US winter wheat harvest 5 pct. OK/TX yield below average. Rains slowing harvest and raising concern about KS quality. USDA rated US HRW crop 30 pct G/E vs 29 last week. Analyst est US 2021/22 wheat crop near 1,713 mil bu vs USDA 1,729. Most doubt USDA will make big changes on June 10. Analyst est US 2021/22 wheat carryout near 666 vs USDA 655 and 2022/23 near 614 vs USDA 619. US SRW export prices discount to France. US HRW prices still a premium.
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