Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to higher. SN is up 8 cents and near 17.13. SX is near 15.26. SMN is near 428.4. BON is near 81.71. CN is up 3 cents and near 7.81. CZ is near 7.37. WN is up 23 cents and near 11.91. KWN is up 25 cents and near 12.77. MWN is up 21 cents and near 13.00.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher. Hogs made an outside day and ended higher on Friday.
SN has traded over 17.00. Talk of higher US demand offered support. US combined April soybean use was a record 305 mil bu and up 38 pct vs last year. Some feel SN could now test 18.00 with China a big short in the soybean market. Initial resistance is near 17.34. Some feel US 2021/22 soybean carryout could be closer to 190 than USDA 235. Same group could see US 2022/23 soybean carryout near 200 versus USDA 310. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil futures were higher.
Overnight, wheat futures are higher. Some feel tight global supplies versus demand and confirmation Russia will not allow Ukraine grain exports by vessel should help KWN find support near 13.00 with a post-harvest objective near 14.00. US south plains rains this week could be too late to help the US HRW crop. Most World wheat users are buying hand to mouth in hopes a seasonal harvest lows to add to coverage.
CN remains in a 7.70-8.20 range. This week US Midwest rains could slow plantings. Some feel CN will need a US Midwest weather pattern to trade over 8.20. Some feel US 2021/22 corn carryout near 1,375 vs USDA 1,440. Appears lack of Ukraine corn exports, lower South America exports and increase EU corn demand suggest 8.00 CN is not yet rationing demand. Key remains US summer weather. Historically, corn futures tend to top in July or August?
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